Expert: “Mixture between major war and ceasefire”
One hour there is a ceasefire between Israel and Iran. The next hour they are bombing each other again. The situation in the Middle East is unpredictable, to say the least.
– It shows that Trump does not have control of the situation, says US expert Jan Hallenberg.
– I am the one in charge. I decide everything. He (Netanyahu) does not decide, US President Donald Trump told the Financial Times after Iran fired ballistic missiles at Israel on Monday night.
Despite that, Israel decided to respond to Iran's attacks in kind, which prompted the president to take to the keyboard.
On his Truth Social platform, Trump wrote on Monday that both sides are seeking an immediate ceasefire and that they must “stop shooting.”
Major war or ceasefire?
On Monday afternoon, Iranian pro-regime media reported that an order had been issued not to attack again. Then Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also stated that the fighting was over – for this time.
“It’s a very strange mix between a major war and a ceasefire,” says Jan Hallenberg, professor emeritus of political science at the Swedish National Defense University and expert on US foreign and security policy.
Isabell Schierenbeck, professor of political science at the University of Gothenburg and Israel expert, believes that the US and Israel had a more common understanding of what they wanted to achieve when they entered the war than they do now.
– The US wants to reach some kind of agreement with Iran and it is directly linked to the Strait of Hormuz, which was not a problem at the time, she says and continues:
– Israel wanted to continue the war against Iran, they were not as interested in the ceasefire, but Trump's capriciousness also affects the Israelis. They also don't really know what to expect from Trump in the negotiations.
“No control over the situation”
President Trump has repeatedly claimed in recent months – 37 times, according to CNN – that an agreement is close and that the war with Iran is nearing its end, but the exchange of fire between Israel and Iran shows the opposite, according to Jan Hallenberg.
– It shows that Trump does not have control over the situation. He claims it but does not, he says.
According to Jan Hallenberg, what the attacks ahead may mean for the development of the war or the ceasefire is difficult to predict.
– I don't believe in a major war, but I don't believe in a deal either, he says and continues:
– I don't think it will mean that Trump will resort to the sledgehammer and start bombing or sending troops on the ground, but it's hard to say.
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