Middle East crisis Oil market

The market expects disruptions until next year

There is a high probability that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will not return to normal until early next year. This is shown by figures from the prediction market Kalshi, writes CNBC.

In recent weeks, the probability that the strait will open before August has plummeted from 66 to 21 percent. One explanation is the new attacks between Israel and Iran in recent days.

On Monday, oil prices rose around 5 percent after new unrest in the Middle East. Both Iran and Israel later announced that they had ended the attacks, which has caused the increases to slow down.

At 07:30 on Tuesday, both fuel oil and North Sea oil are trading down around 1 percent each.

Experts warn of price shock as stocks run out

If the parties fail to reach a solution to the conflict in the Middle East, oil prices could reach $150 within a few months. This is what Claudio Galimberti, chief economist at Rystad Energy, tells CNBC.

This is not the first time someone has warned of sharply increased oil prices in connection with the Iran war. But this time the warning is closer, because oil stocks are starting to run out.

– At this point, stocks will decrease more and more unless flows start to increase. This means that prices will rise more and more, says Galimberti.

To solve the global shortage of oil, the number of barrels passing through the Strait of Hormuz must increase from two million to around ten million per day within the next three to six months.

– The problem is that we are absolutely not there right now, says Galimberti.

Commodity analyst Christian Kopfer also warns of prices around $150-200 if the Strait of Hormuz does not open soon.

– Stocks are not infinite and when they have reached a critical level there is nothing more to be done to keep the price down, he tells SvD Näringsliv.