Our NATO membership is a pawn in a larger game

Wolfgang Hansson  

 

Our NATO membership just a pawn in a game 

 

Published: Less than 2 hours ago  

 

This is a commenting text. Analysis and positions are the writer's. 

 

"When the United States realizes that Erdogan intends to lay the hook for a strategically important expansion of the military alliance, the Biden administration begins to pivot on the F-16 plan." Photo: Susanne Lindholm / TT  

 

COLUMNISTS  

 

The Turkish fog curtains are closing.  

 

When Turkey's foreign minister says that there is no connection between the US selling fighter jets to Turkey and Sweden's NATO application, it is almost like saying that there is no connection between climate change and recent extreme weather.  

 

We do not know what was actually said at the meeting between USA Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and his Turkish counterpart Mevlut Cavusoglu apart from the stiff polite phrases before the meeting started.  

 

But if there is ever a time when it is necessary to separate the public rhetoric and what happens behind the scenes, it is now. 

 

It is in neither Turkey´s or the US's interest to openly acknowledge the blackmail situation that prevails. It would look bad for both.  

 

The US has also previously said that it does not intend to be pressured into selling fighter jets against Turkey accepting Finland and Sweden as NATO members.  

 

"Separate issues"  

 

Mevlut Cavusoglu's words after the meeting yesterday that there is no connection between the arms deal and the Nordic countries NATO applications play in the same division. 

 

- The two things should be handled as two completely separate issues, declared Mevlut Cavusoglu while also pointing out that the US did not set as a requirement to sell the plan that Turkey approve Sweden's and Finland's NATO applications.  

 

Blinken did not comment on the matter at all. 

Looking at the actual situation, the following can be observed.  

 

Anthony Blinken. Photo: Michael Sohn/AP 

  

Mevlut Cavusoglu. Photo: Khalil Hamra / AP  

 

Call the hand  

 

Turkey has long wanted to buy new fighter jets from the US. They have had a cold hand since they bought the Russian S-400 air defense system in 2017 against the clear objections of the United States.  

 

As punishment, the US kicked Turkey out of the process to buy the modern F-35 fighter jet. Since then, Turkey has been sitting in the freezer and has not been allowed to buy the older F-16 plane either. Not even modernization kits for the 79 F-16s Turkey already has.  

 

This is how Sweden and Finland apply for NATO membership this spring. In exploratory talks held with all NATO members, Turkey is positive about welcoming Sweden and Finland into NATO. Until Erdogan suddenly changes his mind and starts accusing the countries of allowing Kurdish terrorists to roam free in their homelands. But the one he really wants to put pressure on is the United States.  

 

When the United States realizes that Erdogan intends to lay the hook for a strategically extremely important expansion of the military alliance, the Biden administration begins to pivot on the F-16 plan.  

 

Throughout his time in the White House, Biden has kept Erdogan and Turkey at arm's length. Cavusoglu's visit to Biden yesterday was his first visit to Washington during Biden's two years in power.  

That says something about how frosty relations have been between two of NATO's most important members. 

Setback for Putin  

 

Possibly the Turkish foreign minister is telling the truth when he claims that Blinken did not set as a requirement for the arms deal that Turkey should vote in Sweden and Finland. It doesn't have to be said outright. But it is an implied condition.  

 

If nothing else, it will be very difficult to get the arms deal through Congress if Turkey has either not already approved the two Nordic countries or given a promise to do so.  

 

With Sweden and Finland, NATO gets two valuable additions that strengthen the alliance's front against Russia in the north and east.  

 

At the same time, it is a difficult setback for Putin and Russia, which gets a new 135-mile-long border directly against a NATO country.  

 

For Putin, it is a signal that the demands he made for a new world order in which Russia has the right to its own sphere of interest have had the exact opposite effect.  

 

NATO expansion is one of the most geopolitically and strategically important issues for the US right now. It is completely inconceivable that the superpower would not indirectly condition a large arms deal with Turkey in this situation. Even if they take place in closed rooms.  

Can stop approved deal  

Even in the US Congress, support for a Swedish and Finnish NATO membership is compact among both Democrats and Republicans. However, there are a number of democratic members who do not want to sell arms to Turkey because of Erdogan's increasingly dictatorial tendencies and human rights violations. They may possibly change their minds if Turkey approves membership for Sweden and Finland. Hardly otherwise.  

Furthermore, Congress can at any time until the plan is delivered at short notice stop an already approved deal if Turkey continues to refuse to give up its opposition to Sweden and Finland. 

What we see now is a diplomatic dance where Sweden's and Finland's NATO membership is a pawn in a larger game.  

The fogs are denser than in Lützen but still cannot completely obscure the view.