Analysis: The war is a test for both NATO and Trump
Donald Trump's war against Iran is increasing divisions within NATO and weakening the alliance. This is what Ksenia Svetlova writes in an analysis in Haaretz.
"The alliance is in a deep crisis, both in content and image," she writes.
Svetlova believes that the war makes it clear how the interests of the United States and the European NATO countries are diverging. Not only have other countries put their foot down against Trump's attempts to pressure them to participate militarily in the war. They are also less dependent on the oil transported through the Strait of Hormuz. Without them, it will be difficult for Trump to secure freedom of navigation.
The situation is putting Donald Trump's unpredictable, capricious power play to the test, writes Stephen Collinson in an analysis for CNN.
“When warring presidents cannot show a clear purpose or strategy for how the war will end, they risk losing public support,” he writes.
Expert: “There will be no quick end to the war”
Today’s attacks on energy production in Iran and the Gulf States represent a clear escalation of the war. This is the opinion of both Middle East expert Anders Persson and Ekot’s international correspondent Daniel Alling.
– By all accounts, there will be no quick end to the war. This is a very, very bad sign, Anders Persson tells TV4 Nyheterna.
Israel has attacked the world’s largest gas field, South Pars, in Iran, and Iran has attacked gas facilities in several Gulf states. The escalation is clear from energy infrastructure to the production itself, says Ekot’s Daniel Alling.
– So far, the Gulf countries have waged a defensive war, now we will see if the attacks on the heart of what they live on lead to a harsher response, he says.
Gas panic in Europe: “Could last for months – or years”
Emil Forsberg
Iran has drawn up a list of refineries to attack – and has started checking them off.
Now experts are warning of a pending gas shortage in Europe.
– It could last for months or even years, says energy analyst Saul Kavonic.
Iran gave Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar hours to prepare before promising retaliatory attacks for Israel’s bombing of the South Pars natural gas facility in southwestern Iran.
The list includes five designated targets:
Shortly after the threat, Qatari authorities announced that Ras Laffan, one of the world's largest facilities for the production of liquefied natural gas, had been bombed and that a fire had broken out.
By 9:30 p.m., oil prices had risen to over $110 per barrel. This has only happened once before during the war, on March 9, when oil prices peaked at $119.25 per barrel.
Images on X reportedly show the attack on the Ras Laffan refinery in Qatar. Photo: X
Gas prices have also risen by five percent during the day. Damaged gas facilities take a long time to repair and earlier in the war, facilities have also been forced to close due to drone attacks.
- If the facility is closed for several months, it could lead to a very difficult situation, especially for Europe. Gas storage facilities in Europe are empty, and European buyers will have to compete with East Asian buyers, Shehar Aziz, an analyst at the London Stock Exchange Group, told E24.
Energy analysts the Financial Times spoke to warned of a “lasting global gas shortage” depending on the extent of the damage.
“Even when the war is over, the impact on supply could last for months or even years as repairs are carried out,” said Saul Kavonic, an energy analyst at MST Financial.
