CIA chief's Moscow trip is a frightening signal
The last time it happened, the purpose was to stop Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
It didn't work.
Now a CIA chief has once again traveled to Moscow with a warning.
Unfortunately, that's not the only worrying circumstance of the trip.
We see what you're doing. Don't do it.
With roughly that message, William Burns, head of the US intelligence agency CIA, traveled to Moscow in November 2021. Joe Biden wanted to warn Vladimir Putin of the consequences if Russia were to carry out its invasion of Ukraine.
But Putin didn't listen.
"My level of concern has gone up, not down," Burns reported afterwards to Biden.
The fact that the head of the CIA, this time John Ratcliffe, made a surprise visit to Moscow on Tuesday, for the first time since the fatal winter five years ago, was therefore in itself a signal of doom.
Neither the US nor Russia wanted to say much about the trip, but last night several media outlets were able to reveal that Ratcliffe actually had the mission that many immediately suspected:
To warn Russia about attacking NATO.
The head of the CIA is not sent on such a trip lightly.
One possible conclusion is that the Americans have solid information about concrete Russian preparations.
It is really serious, and if even this cannot break through the noise from the election campaign's personal financial promise carousel, I don't know what will be required.
Ratcliffe's trip is not an isolated incident either.
The situation has darkened rapidly in recent weeks.
At the beginning of August, it became known that the US intelligence service had updated its picture of Putin's risk appetite.
Previously, it had been assessed that he would not start a conflict with NATO as long as the war against Ukraine was ongoing.
Now, it is assessed instead that a limited attack on a NATO country is possible, and that it could come as early as the autumn.
The scenarios range across the spectrum from cyberattacks via occupation by armed groups without nationality designations to a full-scale military attack.
Putin is under pressure in Ukraine, and I have myself heard from several sources, both in and outside Sweden, that concerns that he will make a drastic move to change the situation have increased.
Many recent events show, one after the other, clear signs of a Russian desire to escalate.
On August 4, a drone filled with explosives was discovered near a Ukrainian Antonov plane at Leipzig airport in Germany, a logistical support point for NATO. The investigation is ongoing, media reports claim that at least three drones were involved in the failed attack, and Chancellor Friedrich Merz says he is close to identifying the culprit.
At the same time, Russian drones have crashed in Romania, the defense company Milrem in Estonia has been the target of an arson attack, Russia appears to be preparing a new mobilization, and Putin's advisor Andrei Fedorov has threatened that British industries that manufacture weapons for Ukraine could be targeted.
According to Iltalehti, among others, the Finnish government has received new intelligence information, which claims that the risk of Russian sabotage attacks in Finland has increased.
Apparently, the level of seriousness is so high that even the usually reserved Finns have openly expressed concern.
- I am more pessimistic. Of course, this is based on all the information I have received, said Prime Minister Petteri Orpo the other day.
It is also difficult not to link NATO’s show of force with air forces in Poland and the Baltics last week to the deteriorating situation.
The exercise was notable not only for its location, near the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, but also for the resources involved: radar reconnaissance planes, aerial refueling planes and an American EA-37B Compass Call, a rare and highly capable offensive electronic warfare vehicle.
Much remains unclear. We do not know how the events are connected, we do not know Putin’s plans and we do not know what John Ratcliffe really said in Moscow. The darkness that follows the worst-case scenarios is great and deep.
The important thing is that the future is not written.
What we do right now affects how it ends.
I hope our leaders can tear themselves away from the election campaign long enough to contribute.
