fredag 20 mars 2026

Middle East Crisis Iran War

UN Chief: Both Sides Likely Commit War Crimes

It is a “reasonable assumption” that both sides in the Iran war are committing war crimes. UN Secretary-General António Guterres told Politico.

– If there are attacks either on Iran or from Iran on energy infrastructure, I think there are reasonable grounds to believe that they could constitute a war crime.

Israel attacked a fossil gas field in Iran on Wednesday and Iran responded with attacks on one of Qatar’s major energy facilities. In addition to these attacks, Guterres also points to the growing number of civilian deaths as possible war crimes.

He also says that it is his view that Israel has dragged the United States into the war, but that it is the United States’ Donald Trump who can end it.

– Trump can convince those who need to be convinced that the work is done, he says.

The war could mean you have to take the bus to work

The Iran war could mean that the speed limit on the E4 is lowered from 110 to 100 kilometers per hour, that you may have to work more from home and that you are encouraged to take the bus more. At least if the International Energy Agency (IEA) recommendations are adopted, writes the Financial Times.

The US and Israeli attacks on Iran have led to Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf, where about one in five barrels of oil sold on the global market passes. This has caused oil prices to skyrocket.

The IEA calls the stoppage at Hormuz the biggest disruption in the history of the oil market and has published ten recommendations that private individuals can follow to ease pressure on the oil market.

Sources: Trump Considering Occupying Oil Island Kharg

US President Donald Trump is considering occupying or blocking the Iranian oil island of Kharg, three sources with knowledge of the matter told Axios.

The aim is to pressure the country to open the Strait of Hormuz.

– He wants the Strait of Hormuz to be kept open. If he has to take Kharg Island to achieve that, he will, a senior Trump administration official told Axios.

90 percent of Iran's oil is exported from Kharg, and since the war began, the United States has carried out several attacks on the island. However, these have not reportedly destroyed the oil infrastructure.

The energy attacks — that's the point

  • Israel attacked the Iranian South Pars gas field on March 18, 2026, which led to Iranian counterattacks on energy facilities in Qatar.
  • The counterattack caused extensive damage to Ras Laffan, the world's largest export facility for liquefied fossil gas, which is feared to affect gas supply for months or years.
  • Oil prices rose sharply after the attacks and gas prices in Europe increased by 30 percent, while stock markets globally fell.
  • US President Donald Trump threatened massive attacks on Iran's gas fields if Iran attacks Qatar again, after initially distancing himself from Israel's attack.
  • The attacks on energy infrastructure in the Persian Gulf are described by experts as a turning point that brought the war into a new phase with the risk of a global energy crisis.

 

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torsdag 19 mars 2026

The world is facing a shock

Published 20.17


           Att kriget inte snart  är över kan bli en obehaglig insikt på börsen. 

          That the war is not over soon could be an unpleasant insight on the stock market. Photo: Michael                Probst /AP/TT


The war in the Middle East is rapidly heading in a very dangerous direction.

So far, the financial market seems to have counted on the danger soon blowing over.

It now appears to be naive daydreams.

The awakening could be brutal.

"The forecast is very uncertain". This is what the Riksbank writes in connection with its decision to leave the key interest rate unchanged on Thursday morning.

Inflation is likely to rise and growth will decline due to the war in Iran, but how much is written in the stars is the message from the authority.

But if the war continues, there could be talk of several interest rate hikes, warns the Riksbank in one of its so-called alternative scenarios.

The Riksbank is not alone in scratching its head about the future.

Perhaps the most relevant question about the war in Iran right now is this: Who is in charge?

Israel's attack on Iran's South Pars gas fiel has escalated the war and brought it into a completely new and more dangerous phase.

Iran has responded with several attacks on the Ras Laffan gas facility in Qatar, the world's largest producer of liquefied natural gas, LNG.

Den kanske mest relevanta frågan om kriget i Iran just nu är den här: Vem är det som bestämmer? 

Who is behind the escalation? In a post on Truth Social, Donald Trump claimed that it was Israel that carried out the attack and that the US had no idea that it was coming.

But according to several American media outlets, this is not true at all, Trump was both informed and approved the attack.

At the same time, Donald Trump writes that Israel will not carry out any more attacks, but if Iran retaliates, the United States will blow up the entire South Pars, with or without Israel's approval.

So whoever claims to have nothing to do with the attack promises that those responsible will not repeat it, but at the same time threatens to launch an even worse attack on their own.

Crystal clear.

           Är det Trump som styr – eller en slumpgenerator?

           Is Trump in control - or a random generator? Photo: Julia Demaree Nikhinson /AP/TT

The world's most powerful nation to be controlled by a random generator.

The consequences could be enormous.

So far, the financial market's reaction to the war has been relatively subdued.

Sure, the price of oil has risen and the stock markets have retreated, but the movements have not come close to reflecting how big the problems actually are.

From the start of the war, the market seems to have assumed that Trump will soon declare victory and that everything will return to normal.

That scenario looks increasingly unlikely with each passing hour. Even if Trump were to withdraw, it does not mean that the problems will disappear.

On the one hand, Iran can continue to control traffic in Hormuz and thus continue to hold the world economy in a stranglehold.

But above all: after the events of the past 24 hours, there is no longer the option of everything going back to the situation before the war.

Oil analyst Rory Johnston writes on X that a stop in the Strait of Hormuz is like a water hose that has become kinked – you can get the flow going pretty quickly. Attacks on infrastructure are like taking out a shotgun and shooting away the water tap to which the hose is attached.

It will take a long time to rebuild everything. Qatar warns that it may be forced to tear up contracts for gas deliveries to Europe that are as far away as five years in the future.

This insight is starting to sink in. On Thursday morning, the price of natural gas in Europe rose by almost 30 percent and has now more than doubled since the war began. The price of North Sea oil (Brent) was quoted at $119 per barrel. Experts are talking about it could go to $200.

Gas prices will hit Europe hard and an already weak economy.

But it could get much worse.

           Ett thailändskt fartyg brinner efter att ha blivit attackerat i Hormuzsundet. 
           A Thai ship burns after being attacked in the Strait of Hormuz. Photo: AFP Photo/Royal Thai Navy

Europe has gone from being dependent on Russian gas to importing 60 percent of its natural gas from the United States. The question is, is it a reliable supplier? Already, there are reports of ships that were on their way from the United States to Europe but have been diverted to Asia.

China and South Korea have imposed restrictions on oil and gas exports to protect their own countries' access to energy. This could lead to even higher prices and shortages in other countries.

A deepening oil crisis is pulling the rug ut from under the economies of several countries in Asia, not to mention the Gulf states. Since nations like Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar supply the rest of the world with large amounts of capital, it will be felt in many places.

The US economy is also vulnerable.

EJ Antoni, an economist who was previously close to Trump, tells the Financial Times that it is simply not strong enough to withstand an oil price of over $100 per barrel.

On Thursday, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that the US will lift sanctions on oil from Iran in order to get more volumes onto the world market and thereby slow down the price rise.

Yes, you read that right. The same country that the US is bombing now has the opportunity to earn an extra hoe. Brilliant.

But why these efforts to calm the oil market?

High oil prices are pure winnings for the US. Donald Trump explained that as recently as Thursday on Truth Social.

This after boasting in his speech to the nation, three days before the war began, that gasoline prices were so low.

That's where we are good people.

It's not hard to agree with the Riksbank. The forecast is very uncertain.


 

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