Jonathan Jeppsson
Published: Less than 3 hours ago
Updated: Less than 3 hours ago
This is a commenting text. Analysis and positions are the writer's.
COLUMNISTS
Four curves are running amok - and the world's climate scientists are being shaken to their core.
"It's absolutely crazy - something is happening," writes climate scientist Brian McNoldy.
The only question is – what?
A short slice of reality right now:
Restore Wetland activists throw red paint on the protective glass of a Monet painting at the National Museum. The painting is undamaged, but the fury compacts from right to left. "Here is my limit," writes V-member Karin Rågsjö on Twitter. "To give in to Monettavlor. In any case, the cheers are not coming from me.” "Time to classify the environmental extremists 'Restore the wetlands' as a terrorist organization", writes the group leader of SD in Stockholm, Gabriel Kroon.
At the same time, outside the walls of the National Museum:
Sea ice extent in Antarktica is trawling at extremely low levels. Global surface temperatures have skyrocketed, right now we are temporarily above the much talked about 1.5 degree level. The same applies to ocean temperatures, especially in the North Atlantic where the curves point straight up.
Combined with other extreme weather events, such as the widespread fires in Canada, this has raised concerns that climate change has suddenly begun to accelerate. Activity among climate scientists on Twitter has been intense this past week.
“I know there are a million people sharing charts and maps of temperature anomalies lately, but there's a good reason for that. This is absolutely crazy and people who watch this everyday can't believe their eyes. Something very strange is about to happen," writes researcher Brian McNoldy on Twitter.
But about these events there has been quite silence among our politicians. No one has stated that their limit has been passed. There is no terrorist crime against our planet.
So what is really going on? And where is our limit?
North Atlantic
The unusual warmth in the North Atlantic is remarkable and raises fears of a more intense hurricane season than is normal in an El Niño year. "Scientists are scratching their heads," says Professor Mike Meredith, of the British Antarctic Survey. Sea water takes up more space at higher temperatures, accelerating sea level rise, and warmer water at the poles accelerates the melting of the ice caps.
The global temperature of the world's oceans also generally remains at record levels. "The ocean has been warming steadily but we are now seeing record temperatures which is really alarming given that we expect El Niño to strengthen," said Ellen Bartow-Gillies, climate scientist at Noaa. "It will undoubtedly have an impact on the rest of the world."
The oceans act as a global warming buffer, storing 90 percent of excess heat. But how far can we stretch this buffer capacity? And what is the heating due to?
Let's get back to it.
Global temperature
The global average temperature is at or near record levels. The respected researcher Michael Mann believes that it is almost certain that 2023 will be the warmest year ever - however, other assessors are not quite as convinced. El Nino conditions will strengthen regardless, adding between 0.1C to 0.2C to the total global temperature, according to Mann.
Finnish meteorologist Mika Rantanen believes that the increasing heat is "extraordinary" and that it is "quite certain" that it will result in a record-warm June.
Sea ice drift in Antarctica.
The sea ice in Antarctica
The curve of the slow growth of Antarctic sea ice is astonishing - it has never been so small at this time.
This baffles the scientists - it was the Arctic that was the problem after all.
Antarctica has resisted in the past.The continent seemed unaffected by the warming that occurs at other latitudes. The extent of sea ice has had a slightly increasing trend for a long time - it is only in recent years that the curve has fallen dramatically.
For the researchers, it remains a mystery.
"The current low sea ice extent (...) is extreme, and frankly, we are working to understand why," said Antarctic expert Ted Scambos,, researcher at the Earth Science and Observation Center to the Inside Climate News site.
The answer may still lie in the depths. A theory put forward by some researchers is that the warming in the sea around the continent has only now "caught up" in recent years and that it is what is melting the ice.
Solar radiation
Solar radiation has increased significantly over the past 15 years. Researchers have been able to establish that the earth's energy imbalance roughly doubled between 2005 and 2019.
In recent years, it has increased significantly. There are theories that it is the reduction of aerosols, i.e. sulfur particles in the atmosphere, that may have contributed to this change.
An explanation could be a decision made in 2020. Then new, stricter requirements for ship fuel were introduced.
Climate scientist Leon Simons writes about how the effect was immediate - the amount of solar radiation that was absorbed increased significantly, mostly in the areas where ship traffic was most intense - the North Atlantic.
It was a strange Catch-22 situation: As emissions – and thus sulfur particles – decreased in the atmosphere, warming increased.
So how seriously should we take these curves?
Distinguished scientist Zeke Hausfather says we have no evidence that warming is accelerating beyond the range scientists previously predicted it would.
Have we passed a tipping point?
The risk is there, although there is no evidence for that position either.
"There is a possibility, even if it is small," says researcher Tianle Yuan of the University of Maryland.
So then the question is: Where does our border really go?
It still lacks an answer.
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