Is Netanyahu's plan to rebuild the entire Middle East?
Wolfgang Hansson
This is a commenting text. Analysis and positions are the writer's.
Published 19.46
Quick version
- Benjamin Netanyahu and Israel are considering a tough response after Iran's latest drone attack, and there is speculation that Israel may try to get rid of Iran's current regime to win long-term security in the region.
- Israel has previously succeeded in eliminating leaders within Hezbollah and has carried out military actions in Lebanon and against Houthi rebels in Yemen, giving Israel an opportunity to act while Iran is judged to be weakened.
- A large-scale attack on Iran risks a wider war in the Middle East and
could lead to Iran accelerating its pursuit of nuclear weapons, which
would pose a major security challenge to Israel and its allies.
Benjamin Netanyahu and Israel seem to have suffered something akin to collective hubris after recent military successes.
There are many indications that Netanyahu wants to seize the opportunity to reshape the Middle East. Maybe even try to topple Iran's Islamist regime.
That IsraelIsrael will respond to Iran's latest robot attack is a given. If you listen to Netanyahu but also many other voices in Israel, the answer will be harsh. Iran will have to pay dearly.
Netanyahu has not mentioned any specific targets, but a former prime minister like Naftali Bennett is openly talking about now being the time to strike Iran's nuclear facilities and thus destroy the mullahs' ability to acquire nuclear weapons.
Such an attack would be an extreme escalation. President Biden says he does not support such a response. But Netanyahu has previously shown that he completely ignores what Biden says. He knows that the American president is tied up by the presidential election in five weeks. Biden's only option to force Netanyahu into obedience is to stop the US arms shipments. He dares not, because it would seriously threaten Kamala Harris's chances of victory in the Israel-friendly United States.
In Israel, the feeling is that much of the country is in some kind of victory frenzy after the pager attacks on Hezbollah's leadership, the elimination of leader Hassan Nasrallah, the invasion of southern Lebanon, and the ability to withstand the powerful surprise attack of 180 ballistic missiles from Iran.
Nothing seems to go wrong. It is necessary to strike while Iran is greatly weakened by the fact that its defense shield in Lebanon, Hezbollah, has been smashed to pieces. Israel has also struck against the Houthi rebels in Yemen, another of Iran's proteges.
Iran behind everything
If you zoom out a little from the acute situation, the picture of the Middle East looks like this.
Israel has long since concluded peace agreements with Jordan and Egypt. During Trump's tenure, Israel established diplomatic relations with the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain.
When Hamas carried out its act of terror in Israel on October 7 last year, Saudi Arabia was on the verge of recognizing Israel.
Iran is the exception along with its ally Syria. The theocratic regime continues to question Israel's right to exist. Through Hezbollah, the Houthi rebels and Shia militias in Syria and Iraq, the armed resistance against Israel and its occupation of Palestinian territories is constantly being pushed. Iran also provides support to Hamas.
Iran is a rock-hard dictatorship and the same applies to varying degrees to the Arab states. Israel is the only democratic country in the region.
If Israel can bring about a regime change in Iran, a situation can be created in the Middle East where basically all states accept Israel's existence. Israel could get the long-term security it so desperately craves. Although this does not mean that the populations of these countries would suddenly love the Jewish state.
It remains to be resolved what will happen in the occupied West Bank and in Gaza. But it will be much easier for Israel to create some kind of peace with the Palestinians if he can stop Iran's support for anti-Israel groups.
Enticing attack
That is why it is so tempting for many in Israel to strike at an apparently weakened Iran.
Netanyahu has repeatedly addressed the Iranian people in statements saying that their leader is putting them in great danger. Other leading Israelis have openly called on the population to rise up against the ruling Islamist clergy.
If Israel cracks down on Iran, Netanyahu probably hopes it will trigger a popular uprising. It is no secret that the regime is widely unpopular. Most recently, we have seen the widespread demonstrations when women protested against being forced to cover their hair with a shawl.
A more comprehensive attack on Iran would also secretly please the Gulf states and Saudi Arabia, who see Iran as a dangerous adversary.
But the risk is, of course, that Netanyahu will get in over his head if he tries to remake the entire Middle East into a more Israel-friendly region.
After all, Iran is the region's strongest military power alongside Israel. They will not tacitly accept a large-scale and regime-threatening Israeli attack. The risk is that the whole thing degenerates into a major war in the region, in which case the United States will inevitably be drawn in whether it wants to or not.
Clear signal
Netanyahu also runs another risk if his response is disproportionately large. A sledgehammer can convince the clergy in Tehran that they must acquire nuclear weapons as a security guarantee against Israel and the United States. Which is exactly what Israel and the rest of the world are trying to prevent.
It is obvious to everyone that Iran does not want a major war. The robot attack against Israel was fairly extensive and only lasted for an hour or so with one death and limited material damage.
Afterwards, Iran announced that their revenge for Nasrallah's death was complete with the attack. You can't get a clearer signal than that you don't want any escalation.
On every occasion since the Gaza war and its offshoots have stood at various crossroads, Netanyahu has chosen to escalate rather than cool down.
How will it be this time?
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