The world holds its breath before Israel's response
Wolfgang Hansson
Published 21.55
Rarely has the expression "the world holds its breath" been more justified to use.
Decisive for whether or not there will be a major regional war is how Israel responds to Iran's revenge attack.
Regardless, what we are witnessing now is a dramatic escalation of an already very dangerous situation.
Quick version In a column the other day, I asked why there has been so much silence from Iran after the death of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.
Now came the answer. The Iranian leadership needed a few days to analyze the situation and decide how harsh their revenge would be.
If you compare with April when Iran sent over 300 missiles and drones against Israel, there are some differences.
That time, Iran announced its attack several days in advance, giving both Israel and US troops in the region time to prepare. An almost too clear signal that you don't want a major war. Almost all missiles and drones were shot down.
This time the warning was only a few hours and did not come directly from Iran but from the United States, which intercepted Iranian communications.
This time the attack was carried out only with the most dangerous rockets, about 200 ballistic missiles. It is seen as an escalation.
Overall, what we have seen so far must still be considered a limited attack.
Iran could hardly continue to sit idly by while Israel tries to knock out Hezbollah, a proxy militia branded a terrorist in the West, which Iran spent a huge amount of money and energy building up.
Not acting would have been a signal to Iran's other support militias in Syria, Iraq and Yemen that "you can fend for yourselves".
At the same time, it is clear that Iran does not want to escalate the situation beyond control. Admittedly, they warn Israel that they will strike even harder if Israel directs a revenge attack on Iran. But that kind of eye-for-an-eye, tooth-for-tooth rhetoric is so common in the Middle East that it's almost mandatory.
As it appears at the time of this writing, Iran has also failed this time to cause any major material damage or civilian casualties.
Benjamin Netanyahu. Photo: Pamela Smith/AP
So the question is how Israel intends to respond.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's confidence is at an all-time high after succeeding in killing Nasrallah and knocking out large parts of Hezbollah's leadership. Perhaps that makes him prepared to take greater risks than otherwise.
After Iran's attack on Israel in April, Netanyahu contented himself with a relatively modest response. But the signals from Israel are that the response will be tougher this time. A possible target is the Iranian facilities where uranium is enriched in order to possibly manufacture nuclear weapons in the future. Other possible targets are Iranian defense facilities.
Regardless, an Israeli retaliatory attack of the harshest kind will mean an even more serious escalation.
We may already be in the great war that everyone feared without us realizing it.
Once again, the spotlight is on the United States, Israel's main ally and the provider of many of the advanced weapons it needs to maintain its military dominance in the region.
If there is anyone who can set limits on Israel or at least persuade them to keep their response within reasonable limits, it is the United States. Unfortunately, it has so far appeared that Netanyahu does not listen when President Joe Biden calls for cease-fires or de-escalation.
Biden is a weakened president considering he only has a few months left in office. It will be difficult for him to twist Netanyahu's arm because it could affect Kamala Harris's chances of winning the election.
Both candidates want to show that they stand by Israel.
It gives Netanyahu more room to maneuver than he would otherwise have.
Missiles in the sky over the Gaza Strip on Tuesday night. Photo: Abdel Kareem Hana / AP
The risk for Biden is that his flattery towards Israel's prime minister means that the United States will be dragged into a war in the Middle East against its will. He has sent even more US troops to the region as a signal to Iran not to do anything stupid.
But as it looks now, it is rather Netanyahu who is constantly pushing the escalation in the hope that through success in the various wars he will be able to save his political career the day the war is over.
The indiscriminate bombing of Gaza, the attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniya in Tehran, the pager attacks, the killing of Nasrallah and a ground offensive in Lebanon.
At every crossroads, Netanyahu has chosen escalation over trying to bring an end to the war sparked by the Hamas terrorist attack in Israel on October 7 last year.
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