Little chance that this will mean an end to the war

The war between Israel and Hamas
Three things that could put an end to the ceasefire

Wolfgang Hansson

This is a commentary text. Analysis and positions are the writer's.

Updated 16.46 | Published 16.36

Quick version

• The ceasefire in Gaza is welcomed with joy but risks collapsing due to a lack of trust between the parties and complicated terms of the agreement that still need to be negotiated.
• The ceasefire in Gaza is welcomed with joy but risks collapsing due to a lack of trust between the parties and complicated terms of the agreement that still need to be negotiated.
• Israel is mainly interested in getting its hostage back, which allows them to cancel the agreement if they find it advantageous.
  

That the ceasefire in Gaza is welcomed with great joy and optimism is understandable and hopeful.

But if you put on your realistic glasses, the chance that the ceasefire will mean an end to the war is small.

At least three reasons suggest that the ceasefire risks collapsing after the first phase.

If it happens at all.

The basis for the agreement that both parties have now said preliminary yes to was already on the table in May when President Biden presented the plan.

But neither Hamas nor Israel were sufficiently interested or pressured to say yes.

The fact that the endless negotiations finally seem to have borne fruit is due to several things.

Destroyed buildings in Gaza.

Destroyed buildings in Gaza. Photo: Ariel Schalit / AP

The change of president in the US has been a clear deadline.

Even though Biden has done the basic job, it is Donald Trump who has put the great pressure on the end. Both by threatening and due to the fact that he is the one who will govern for the next four years.

Benjamin Netanyahu, above all, wants to keep good terms with Trump in the hope that it will pay off in the future. Perhaps by the US approving Israel's annexation of the West Bank or building settlements in Gaza.

Israeli tank in the Gaza Strip. Photo: Ariel Schalit / AP

Hamas' situation has deteriorated sharply.

The leadership is almost wiped out. Although the group has managed to replace many of its dead fighters with younger talents, they do not have the same solid training and fighting ability. Hamas needs a break to rebuild its organization.

Hamas' allies are outnumbered. Israel has greatly weakened the Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon, which has long attacked northern Israel in solidarity with Hamas. There is now a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah.

The Assad regime in Syria has fallen and Iran is greatly weakened because of that and Hezbollah's defeat. Both provided extensive support to Hamas, which is now largely frozen in place.

The time was simply ripe for a deal.

But given the total lack of trust between the parties, the conditions for the ceasefire to last are not very good. For several reasons.

1. The whole arrangement is very complicated and drawn-out

It involves three phases, of which the conditions for phases two and three still have to be negotiated. Many mines are buried there.

The 33 hostages to be released in phase one are to be released gradually, a few at a time, over six weeks. At the same time, Israel is to release hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. This invites things to go wrong. Each release is a complicated operation.

2. Israel is really only interested in getting its hostage back

Neither Nentayahu nor the far-right ministers in his government want to end the war. Israel's military superiority means that Netanyahu still believes that he will be able to achieve total victory against Hamas.

If Israel wants to, it will be able to find excuses to abandon the agreement at a later stage. As long as Netanyahu can keep the war going, he can also stay in the prime minister's post.

3. There is no political solution in pipeline?

The Hamas terror attack on October 7 last year and Israel's violent response are just the culmination of a conflict between Israel and the Palestinians that has been going on since the Jewish state was founded in 1948.

As long as Netanyahu rules Israel, there are no conditions for any real peace negotiations that will resolve the question of how the two peoples will live side by side in peace. Netanyahu opposes a two-state solution, and he is far from alone among Israeli politicians. At the same time, the Palestinians' right to self-determination must be guaranteed in order for the conflict to have a final solution. Otherwise, the ceasefire will only be a temporary pause in hostilities.

But despite all the concerns, it is of course a success if the fighting now ends. Even if it is only temporary.

The agreement stipulates that 600 trucks of aid will be allowed into Gaza every day. This is a huge improvement over the current situation, where there is a severe shortage of food, hygiene products and medicine.

Benjamin Netanyahu with Israeli soldiers in Syria. Photo: AP

For the more than two million Gazans who have been forced to live as refugees in their own territory for months, the ceasefire will be a huge relief. Although most have no homes to return to, they will not have to lie awake at night worrying that a bomb could fall next to their tent at any time.

Aid organizations have been sounding the alarm for months about the human and humanitarian disaster that is taking place in Gaza.

The war is one of the deadliest conflicts in modern times.

According to the Hamas-controlled health authority, 47,000 people have been killed in Gaza. More than half of them are women, children and the elderly.

Israel has lost 405 soldiers. Hamas terror attacks killed 1,200 Israelis.

So it is indeed high time to stop the killing.

But how fragile the conditions are is shown by Netanyahu's last-minute announcement that he is postponing the government's formal approval of the agreement. He claims that Hamas has backed down and is imposing new conditions.

Have we heard that before?