Expert: Not much the US really knows

Iran

Expert: This much we know about the effects of the US attack

Felix Wilow

Published 20.56

The night attack is described as a success from the American side – while Iran downplays the effects.

According to nuclear weapons researcher Fredrik Nielsen, the answer may lie somewhere in between.

– But that the facilities have been damaged, that should be beyond all doubt, he says.

After the US attack on Iran, information has been pouring in. Immediately afterwards, Donald Trump described a “very successful attack” on the nuclear energy facilities of Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan. He also claimed that “Fordo is gone”

IAEA chief Rafael Grossi tells CNN that the facility in Natanz has been “totally destroyed” while the one in Isfahan has suffered “very serious damage”.

But exactly how big an impact the attack had is difficult to know, says Fredrik Nielsen, a nuclear weapons researcher at the Swedish National Defense Research Institute (FOI).

– You can make a reasonable assessment, and what the US means by saying it has been a success is probably that they have knocked out these enrichment facilities. And it doesn't seem entirely unreasonable that they have at least suffered major damage. What Iran might mean, if you want to make a benevolent interpretation, is that they have managed to get rid of this highly enriched uranium, that it has survived, and it also doesn't seem unreasonable that that is true, he says.

 

           

           

          These satellite photos show the Natanz facility before and after. According to IAEA director                    Rafael Grossi, the facility has been "totally destroyed". AP

According to him, it is also unclear how much the US actually knows at the moment.

– I don't think it will be many days before the extent of the damage to the facilities becomes clear. But to know the exact extent, you basically need to be in the centrifuge halls.

And he describes the US getting in there as unlikely.

– I think that will probably be problematic. They probably aren't interested in that either, actually, he says.

 

Fredrik Nielsen, nuclear weapons researcher at the Swedish National Defence Research Institute (FOI). Photo: Linda Björkvall Köling/Foi

At the same time, he emphasizes that significantly more information should reach the country in the near future anyway.

– I think they have such good knowledge of the effects of these weapons. When they get satellite images and can see the size of the craters, they can probably determine quite well how big an effect these attacks have had, he says.

The purpose behind both Israel's and the US's attacks is said to be to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons. Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson also believes that "it remains important that Iran does not develop nuclear weapons".

 

One of the planes that were allegedly used in the attack returns to Whiteman Air Force Base in the US. Photo: David Smith/AP

Iran claims that it managed to move the highly enriched uranium before the attack. A factor that will play a significant role in how big an impact the American attack will have.

- What we can say now is that the facilities are definitely out of action in the sense that they cannot be operated now. If they are completely destroyed, the analysis will show that. We will probably know that in just a couple of days. But if they are destroyed, then Iran is back to square one when it comes to the enrichment itself. But it should be remembered that there is nothing to indicate that the enriched material is damaged or destroyed in any way, says Fredrik Nielsen.