Benjamin Netanyahu has given his military the green light to attack terror targets in Gaza.
Now the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas is hanging by a thread.
- It is a very risky situation, says Middle East expert Alexander Atarodi.
Israel has attacked several targets in Rafah in southern Gaza on Sunday. According to the Israeli military, the attacks are a response to an earlier incident when Hamas members opened fire on Israeli soldiers.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has ordered the military to respond forcefully and Defense Minister Israel Katz says he has urged the military to act forcefully against Hamas terror targets in Gaza.
“Hamas will pay a high price for every shooting and violation of the ceasefire, and if the message does not get through, our response will intensify,” Katz said, according to the Times of Israel.
At the same time, Hamas says it is not behind the attack and believes that it is Israel that is violating the ceasefire.
Protests in Gaza after the attacks. Photo: Abdel Kareem Hana / AP
“Trump’s peace plan is vague”
Anders Persson, a Middle East expert and researcher at Linnaeus University, is not surprised by the development.
– This is exactly the development one could have expected. Partly because Trump’s peace plan is vague, but also because post-conflict societies are often very dangerous and unstable with a lot of violence and different groups fighting for control and injustices, he says.
Finding out exactly what has happened and who is telling the truth in this situation is basically impossible, says Anders Persson.
– There is still very unclear information and finding out is a source-critical nightmare. But it seems that there was some attack that triggered Israel and that will be a test for the ceasefire, says Anders Persson, who also believes that there will be more similar events in the future.
Middle East expert Anders Persson says that the development is expected.
1 / 2Photo: TT
"Has not failed"
Alexander Atarodi, an independent Middle East expert, says that the ceasefire has so far held up – despite the new attacks.
– It has not failed. But there are signs and a risk that it will now unless the US and other countries try to hold Israel and Hamas back. It is a very risky situation.
It is clear that it is hanging by a thread. Alexander Atarodi points to three vulnerabilities in the plan that Trump has gotten Hamas and Israel to sign.
– Firstly, the Israeli government does not want a ceasefire. It was clear when the Knesset voted and the settler parties abstained. They accepted it because the pressure from the US was strong, but as soon as Hamas does not meet the demands, Israel is ready to go in, says Atarodi.
He says there is political pressure on Netanyahu to resume the war.
Another vulnerability is Hamas, which must accept a new government in Gaza in order to agree to disarm, says Atarodi.
Trump has not yet commented on the fighting.
1 / 2Photo: Mark Schiefelbein / AP
Trump's actions are decisive
The third is the role of the US and Donald Trump's interest in the conflict.
It is still early morning in the US, but following how Donald Trump acts now will be decisive. Anders Persson does not believe that the US president wants to see the war flare up again.
- Trump has not commented on this yet. But it will be a great loss of prestige if the ceasefire is broken and regular fighting returns. He has invested a lot personally in this and seems to have his sights set on the Nobel Peace Prize, he says.
Donald Trump and other mediating parties must keep up the pressure on both Israel and Hamas now, according to Atarodi.
– The fact that there has been a ceasefire is solely due to the American pressure on them. If that lets up, the ceasefire will fall, says Alexander Atarodi.
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