The desperate Ukraine plan reveals our weakness
Published 20.35
A large, black hole is gaping in Ukraine's Western-dependent budget and the willingness to give has clearly decreased.
EU leaders are now trying to close the gap with a previously unthinkable crisis move.
Even if it succeeds, the weakness it exposes is ominous.
Exactly how much money Ukraine needs varies depending on who is counting, and how.
According to the International Monetary Fond (IMF)'s latest forecast, Ukraine's budget for 2026–2027 is missing 65 billion euros.
Sweden and Finland menar, for their part, believe that Ukraine needs a total of 130 billion euros in addition during the same period.
It is clear that a lot is needed, quickly – and that the von der Leyen league has a plan:
To use 185 billion euros of the Russian assets that have been frozen at the Euroclear financial institution in Belgium since 2022.
The idea has so far had difficulty gaining traction. The EU has been concerned about capital flight, higher interest rates and foreign investors turning a blind eye – in addition to the troubling fact that confiscation is probably illegal.
However, the Commission believes it has found a clever backdoor: the EU is lending 140 billion euros to Ukraine, with the Russian money as collateral. A loan that does not have to be repaid until Ukraine has received the corresponding amount in war reparations from Russia (which I imagine all the idiots involved will never happen).
The whole thing is certainly very smart – but that is not why more and more EU countries, including Sweden, are now prepared to do it.
If they had, they would not have waited almost four years.
The reason is that their own money is running out.
The debt of the rich countries is close to record levels – and the loans continue to increase.
French governments are falling like pins because the budget is politically impossible to balance, and as a share of GDP, France has only given one tenth as much as Denmark in bilateral aid to Ukraine.
Even normally well-off Sweden is considering running a budget deficit of 167 billion kronor next year due to defense spending, Ukraine support, and electoral fraud.
Two additional factors negatively affect the equation:
1. NATO countries have promised Donald Trump to spend 5 percent of GDP on their own defense. That will put pressure on many tight budgets (in those countries that choose to care).
2. US monetary support for Ukraine has almost ceased – but the US as a unifying political force has also fallen away. Under Joe Biden, stingy Europeans could expect sour talks from across the Atlantic, with insistent calls to contribute this and that. That is no longer the case.
Politically, there is still great agreement in Europe to stand behind Ukraine.
But already an enormous gap has opened up when it comes to delivery.
Of the 40 billion euros in new military support that NATO countries are expected to spend this year, the Nordic-Baltic countries account for 14 billion, accordding to the government.
Our 33 million inhabitants will then contribute approximately 4,363 kronor per person – compared to 282 kronor per person for the rest of NATO's 950 million inhabitants.
Foreign Minister Maria Malmer Stenergard's description of this situation – "a very skewed distribution that I am afraid is not sustainable in the long term" – is therefore almost an understatement.
Military support to Ukraine has also consequently decreased significantly as awhole during July and August.
Next week, i the European Council will meet in Brussels with the issue of money on the agenda.
Seizing the Russian money will supposedly keep Ukraine afloat for a few years. That may be enough if Russia's will or cash runs out in the meantime.
But what is truly worrying is what this means:
That fewer and fewer governments now believe they can convince their own populations that victory in this war is important enough to invest money in.
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