There is a major threat to a Ukrainian Jas 39 Gripen
Updated 20.21 | Published 18.38
LINKÖPING. The Jas 39 Gripen is built to shoot down Russian planes.
That it can soon show what it is capable of is basically good news for both Ukraine and Sweden.
But important pieces of the puzzle are still missing for an initiative that also carries its own risks.
The Jas 39 Gripen fits the type of war that Ukraine is waging like a glove.
The plane was designed from the very beginning for a situation where the enemy has more planes and one's own bases are always under threat from long-range weapons.
The Gripen is small, can land on shaky road bases, is easy to disperse for protection and easy to service and reload. The new version E, which the Swedish Air Force took into service just the other day, has electronic warfare systems that are at the forefront of the world and were developed precisely with the threat from Russian aircraft in mind.
The fact that Ukraine is now choosing the Jas 39 Gripen E as its future fighter aircraft is no shock, but it is still a real seal of quality.
According to Zelenskyj, the Ukrainians have done their homework with great care, and there is no reason to doubt it.
With a large country like Ukraine as a partner, Sweden also has far better conditions to continue developing fighter aircraft in the future. This is important both for Saab and for the Swedish defense.
The road to Gripen defending Ukraine's cities is long, however. It will be about three years before the first newly produced Gripen E can be delivered to Ukraine - if absolutely nothing goes wrong.
The basic problem is that Ukraine's long-term need for 100-150 aircraft will be expensive to meet - and that money is an increasingly big headache for Ukraine's supporters.
Ukraine needs hundreds of billions of euros in the coming years, and the willingnees to give has clearly decreased in many European capitals.
Sweden is one of the EU countries that is happy to use 140 billion euros of the Russian assets frozen in Belgium, and that would be enough for a while, but not solve the problem completely.
The financing will be a threat to this project for a long time.
At the same time, the Gripen initiative is entering a very fragile period.
Donald Trump's peace plan has clearly stalled, and at this crossroads he can go in three different directions:
- He can wash his hands, and just let the war continue.
- He can realize that Russia needs to be pressured harder to come to the negotiating table – and actually take steps in that direction.
- He may realize that Ukrainian stinginess is the problem, and start turning the thumbscrews on Zelensky.
The US has already moved towards the outskirts of Ukraine's ring corner, towards a position that is dangerously close to neutral in the conflict.
If Trump chooses the third path, it could push the US into open hostility towards Ukraine.
The significance of such a development is difficult to overstate.
The US has been incredibly important as a unifying force in support of Ukraine. As a pusher for the more fearful – Germany did not even dare to send tanks to Ukraine until the US promised to do the same – and as a guarantor against the war spreading outside Ukraine.
It is the protective umbrella of the United States that has, in a sense, made possible the shift that has taken place in Sweden's military support, from helmets and armor-piercing shells via tanks and artillery pieces to now, perhaps, the most advanced weapons we have ever had.
Sweden is one of the countries that has given the most support to Ukraine, and one of the countries whose security most clearly depends on Putin not winning. If we start sending hundreds of advanced fighter jets to Ukraine, we will undoubtedly advance a few more pegs on the list of his bitterest enemies.
It is perfectly possible to be proud of Sweden's Ukraine policy. It is courageous, morally correct and perhaps even necessary from a security policy perspective.
But it also makes it particularly bad for us if Ukraine support goes from something the superpower in the West encourages, supports and covers up for – to something that the superpower openly disapproves of.
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