Published 21.48
The US may well attack Venezuela in its war on drugs.
But the goal is bigger than that.
- They are putting pressure on Maduro and his regime, says Andrés Rivarola Puntigliano, Latin America expert.
Quick version
The US is planning to attack military targets inside Venezuela, the Miami Herald newspaper on Friday.
This would be a major escalation, after the US has been attacking boats off the coast of Venezuela since September, resulting in around 60 deaths.
President Donald Trump has responded that no decision has been made to attack Venezuela, but that he had not told the media in advance if he did.
According to the president, the US is currently waging a war on drugs, and the boats being attacked are said to be full of drugs and drug smugglers.
The drugs come from other sources
But the drugs are probably a cover-up, if you ask experts.
The country does not account for the largest share of the drugs smuggled into the US.
– Most of it comes overland via Mexico and the Pacific part of America, where the major export ports are, from Peru, Ecuador and Colombia, says Andrés Rivarola Puntigliano, professor of Latin American studies at Stockholm University.
Dag Blanck, professor of North American studies at Uppsala University, says that Trump is using the fight against drug cartels, which is an important domestic policy issue, as an argument.
– But that may not be the strongest argument really. I think it is more about the regime in Venezuela.
Andrés Rivarola Puntigliano also believes that.
Venezuela's socialist dictatorship under the leadership of Nicolás Maduro, but also former president Hugo Chávez, has long been a red herring for the US.
– They are pressuring Maduro and his regime and probably hoping for some kind of internal turning point, the end goal seems to be to bring about a change in the state leadership, says Andrés Rivarola Puntigliano.
Why then?
– The US has long had a negative and hostile position towards the policies pursued in Venezuela. One of the reasons is that Venezuela has moved towards distancing itself from the US, and has become closer to Russia and China.
Increased rivalry
Rivalry between the great powers has increased. Especially since Venezuela has a highly sought-after product: Oil. The US is one of the buyers of Venezuelan oil, but China is the largest. And Russia is making major investments in Venezuela.
This creates a geopolitical confrontation, as Andrés Rivarola Puntigliano describes it.
– The US has traditionally viewed the American continent as its own sphere of power. It does not want other great powers to have any influence. Such an escalation took place during the Cold War against the Soviet Union, when Cuba was the focus. Now Venezuela has moved closer to China and Russia, which is a threat to the US's power ambitions across the continent.
Trump says he is waging a war on drugs - a sleight of hand according to experts. Photo: Mark Schiefelbein/AP
Dag Blanck describes that Trump also has a more foreign policy focus during his second presidential term compared to his first.
- American foreign policy during his second term has become much more muscular. Trump has become much more active and wants the US to get involved in the world again. During the first period, he had a much more restrained role and talked about the US having to stop being involved in eternal wars.
Imperialist tradition
Both of those roles are typically American, and now Trump seems to be moving towards the more dominant and imperialist tradition, Blanck analyzes.
– He probably wants to re-establish the US on the world stage.
So how far can it go?
Neither Dag Blanck nor Andrés Rivarola Puntigliano believe in a regional war between the US and Venezuela.
– I do not believe in a full-scale invasion, but rather targeted attacks, says Andrés Rivarola Puntigliano.
And how can it end?
– At some point there will probably be some form of regime change in the political leadership in Venezuela. I don't know if it's now. But the government is under a lot of pressure and has lost a lot of support. Right now, a lot depends on continuing to receive support from China and Russia.
He describes it as Venezuela being a pawn on the “global chessboard”.
– This might be decided somewhere other than the Caribbean, at the negotiating table between the leaders of the major powers.
FACTS
US attacks on Venezuelan boats
- Since early September 2025, the US has carried out several attacks on small boats in or near Venezuelan waters.
- US drone and air strikes have sunk several boats allegedly carrying drugs or belonging to the criminal group Tren de Aragua. Some 60 people are reported to have been killed in the attacks.
- The US government says the operations are part of a fight against “narco-terrorism” and that they are taking place in self-defense within an ongoing armed conflict against drug cartels.
- President Donald Trump has called Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro “a dictator and drug lord” and said the United States “will no longer tolerate a state that exports drugs and violence to our shores.”
- Venezuela and Colombia have protested, calling the attacks illegal under international law. US lawyers are questioning whether the White House has a legal mandate to use military force against civilian vessels in international waters.
The fact box is created with the support of AI tools and is quality assured by Aftonbladet.
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