Strong El Niño approaching with heat and extreme weather

TT

Published 08.08

           

           

          Precipitation caused by El Niño conditions and amplified by climate change was behind the                        catastrophic floods in Somalia in November 2023.

          1 / 2Photo: AP/TT

Scientists and authorities are closely monitoring developments in the Pacific Ocean. A new El Niño could lead to sharply rising temperatures and global heat records in the coming year.

El Niño conditions mean that the surface water in the eastern parts of the Pacific Ocean is warming up compared to normal conditions. According to the World Meteorological Organization WMO's latest report, surface water temperatures are rising rapidly, which could indicate El Niño conditions as early as May–July this year.

Data from the US weather agency NOAA shows that there is a slightly more than 50 percent chance that a strong El Niño will develop towards the end of the year, says Erik Kjellström, professor of climatology at SMHI.

– It is still too early to say anything in detail, but the probability of an El Niño that could develop into a strong one later this year has increased significantly during the spring.

Closer to the equator

The areas most affected by El Niño conditions are closer to the equator and can experience significantly increased precipitation or severe drought. Up here in the north there is no clear signal.

– There are studies that indicate that during a strong El Niño, it is relatively common to have slightly colder winters up here in Scandinavia. But that is not 100% true and nothing you can make sure forecasts from.

But that does not mean that El Niño cannot have consequences for the entire planet.

The last time El Niño conditions prevailed was 2023–2024, and 2024 was the warmest year ever measured through the combination of a strong El Niño and human-caused climate change.

Although it is too early to draw any definitive conclusions, there are also signs that a “super-El Niño” is developing, which would exacerbate extreme weather events in large parts of the world and contribute to raising the global average temperature.

Risk of extreme weather

There are no clear signs that climate change is affecting the frequency or intensity of El Niño, but it could amplify the effects of the weather phenomenon. In short – extreme weather is at risk of becoming more extreme.

– As we get a warmer climate, we also get a more intense hydrological cycle, so that both precipitation and evaporation increase in intensity, explains Erik Kjellström.

– If you imagine an El Niño situation with very dry conditions in Australia, the dehydration in a warmer climate could be even more severe. But where it rains a lot instead, like Ecuador and Peru or parts of the USA, the precipitation could be even more severe in a warmer climate.

FACTS

El Niño

El Niño and La Niña are phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) weather cycle. El Niño warms the surface waters of the eastern Pacific Ocean, while La Niña cools them.

El Niño occurs on average every two to seven years and usually lasts nine to twelve months. It often peaks around Christmas, hence the name El Niño (the boy child).

El Niño effects such as increased precipitation typically affect parts of southern South America, the southern United States, the Horn of Africa, and Central Asia, while severe drought can occur over Australia, Indonesia, and parts of southern Asia.

The 2023–2024 El Niño is reported to be one of the five strongest ever recorded.

Source: WMO, SMHI, NOAA