Four factors point toward peace this spring
The peace talks are a sideshow.
Yet, for the first time in nearly five years, a number of factors now point toward a possible end to the war in Ukraine.
Perhaps as early as this spring.
Talks between the US, Russia, and Ukraine in Abu Dhabi have concluded.
They have not altered Putin’s calculus.
Hope for peace is being fueled by four other factors:
1. The last chance for a favorable deal
The Republicans in the US suffered a crushing defeat in the midterm elections. Donald Trump is now a "lame duck," and if current trends hold, a Democrat is likely to be elected president in less than two years.
For Vladimir Putin, a settlement reached with Donald Trump could be significantly better than anything he might hope to secure from the next president.
This may pressure him to accept what is currently on the table before the window of opportunity closes.
2. A military stalemate
Drawing lines of control on a map is not an exact science, but according to several observers, the Russian invasion has not merely stalled—it has begun to lose ground.
In both September and October, the Russians lost more territory than they captured, according to the think tank ISW. In net terms, they lost 108 square kilometers.
Meanwhile, the costs are mounting.
According to President Zelenskyy, 54,000 Russians were killed or wounded in October—a record for the war. In the span of just 24 hours this past Sunday, 2,980 Russian soldiers were killed or wounded—a record figure, according to the Ukrainian General Staff.
There are no fresh Russian reserves to deploy, and no simple way to turn the tide of the war.
For a long time, Putin was able to convince himself—and the rest of the world—that a Russian victory on the battlefield was merely a matter of time.
That is becoming increasingly difficult.
3. Bleaker prospects following a final roll of the dice
Russia is exploiting the fact that Ukraine’s defense against ballistic missiles is now virtually non-existent, launching relentless attacks on the civilian population. By destroying electricity infrastructure, water supplies, and bridges, they aim to make life unbearable.
It is therefore likely that Putin intends to continue the war through the cold winter months, hoping to push the Ukrainians to a breaking point.
The silver lining is that if the Ukrainians hold out, Russia will reach the spring with no clear path to victory.
4. No more elections to pin hopes on
Much hinges on Marine Le Pen. If she becomes president of France this spring, Putin might well hope that she will weaken the coalition opposing him from within.
Yet, even if she wins the election, it is by no means certain that she will live up to those expectations. Le Pen, too, is sensitive to public opinion; she is not necessarily keen on burning France’s national pride—or bridges with other European leaders—over an issue that offers highly questionable value to her domestic political agenda.
In recent months, both Le Pen and her heir apparent, Jordan Bardella, have expressed views on Russia that are decidedly more negative than in the past.
If Le Pen fails to deliver, Putin does not have much to look forward to in the European electoral calendar.
The next national election in Germany, which the far-right, pro-Russian AfD could potentially win, is not scheduled until 2029.
But there is no reason to pop the champagne just yet.
Russia’s ultimate objectives go far beyond what a swift peace could provide.
Putin does not have to look very hard to find plenty of reasons to keep the war going:
- American voters are unlikely to become any more enthusiastic about costly foreign policy under a new president.
- Weapons production in Europe and the United States will remain insufficient for some time to come—particularly regarding missile defense.
- Ukraine faces massive manpower shortages in its military—likely to a greater extent than we, as outside observers, are aware of.
- Europe is now shouldering the entire burden of keeping Ukraine’s economy afloat. This may prove politically unsustainable.
Yet, for the first time in nearly five years of war, the outlines of a path toward peace are beginning to emerge.
That is not insignificant.
