Negotiations a “theater” that benefits Putin

 

 

Kristoffer Viita/TT

 

Published 06.15

        

       USA:s sändebud Jared Kushner talar under de USA-medlade trepartssamtalen mellan Ryssland och           Ukraina i Abu Dhabi, Förenade arabemiraten, på tisdagen. Foto: Altaf Qadri/AP/TT

US envoy Jared Kushner speaks during US-mediated tripartite talks between Russia and Ukraine in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, on Tuesday. Photo: Altaf Qadri/AP/TT

Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, a series of fruitless peace negotiations have taken place. According to Ukraine expert Fredrik Wesslau, it is highly unlikely that the ongoing talks in Abu Dhabi will lead to any meaningful outcome.

“Putin may benefit from continuing this ‘negotiation theater,’ even if it doesn’t result in an agreement.”

US President Donald Trump recently promised that Russia’s war of invasion against Ukraine would “end soon,” adding that “the only reason it will end is because of me.”

However, Russian President Vladimir Putin sees advantages in continuing to negotiate with Trump, according to Fredrik Wesslau, a senior expert at the think tank European Council on Foreign Relations. It creates divisions within the West and could lead to concessions from the Russian side—at the expense of Ukraine and Europe—which aligns perfectly with Putin’s goal of having the great powers dictate the terms of European security.

“Unlikely”

Wesslau considers it “highly unlikely” that the talks in Abu Dhabi will lead to a ceasefire.

“Putin wants to continue the war; he believes he can achieve his objectives through military means rather than at the negotiating table.”

He also points out that the US has recently eased the pressure on Russia. This includes easing sanctions and entering into agreements to purchase diesel, with Russia set to supply up to 36 million barrels—equivalent to 4.8 million tonnes—to the American and global markets.

Moving further away from peace

To alter Putin’s calculus and compel genuine negotiations for a ceasefire, what is actually required is the tightening of US sanctions, the provision of more weaponry—including long-range missiles—to Ukraine, and the freezing of Russian assets.

"What Trump has done over the past few weeks has moved us further away from peace or a ceasefire," says Fredrik Wesslau.

While official-level talks are underway in Abu Dhabi, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy is in Denmark to meet with the heads of government from the Nordic countries to discuss military support for Ukraine and security in Europe.

Europe’s support for Ukraine remains robust, encompassing sanctions as well as financial and military aid—notably the EU’s pledge of a €90 billion loan to Ukraine over two years. By further increasing this support, Europe can exert pressure on Moscow to choose peace negotiations over the continuation of the war.

"This would create new incentives and might lead Moscow to realize that a negotiated peace is more in their interest than continuing the war," says Fredrik Wesslau.

Facts

Many peace negotiations—no peace

Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, there have been around 30 meetings, rounds of negotiations, and diplomatic contacts involving either Russia or Ukraine, according to an AP timeline. They have not led to any peace agreement, but a number of limited successes have been achieved.

– Humanitarian corridors: The very first talks in Belarus in February 2022 led to an agreement on corridors for the evacuation of civilians.

– Grain exports: In July 2022, Russia and Ukraine—with mediation from Turkey and the UN—agreed to resume exports from Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea. Russia withdrew from the agreement the following year.

– Prisoner exchanges: In May 2025, the parties agreed to exchange 1,000 prisoners of war each. In February 2026, an additional 157 prisoners from each side were exchanged.

– Ceasefire: Ukraine accepted a US proposal for a 30-day truce in March 2025, but Putin effectively rejected it. A later-announced ceasefire in the Black Sea did not lead to any lasting solution.

– Oleshky: In late October 2026, US First Lady Melania Trump led a meeting regarding a truce in the occupied town of Oleshky, located on the front line in southern Ukraine.

Source: AP