Sweden's NATO application

The expert's concerns ahead of the NATO talks: "A lot of pressure" 

 

Nivette Dawod 

 

Updated 12:28 | Posted 12:12 p.m  

 

News  

 

Foreign Minister Tobias Billström is hopeful ahead of today's important meeting on NATO membership with Turkey.  

 

But Turkish President Erdogan has expressed more negative tones.  

 

- I am worried that there will be a lot of pressure on Sweden to deliver something more, says Michael Sahlin, former Swedish ambassador to Turkey. 

 

Important meetings about Sweden's NATO future await in the coming days.  

 

This afternoon, Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will meet under the leadership of NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg.  

 

This will be followed by the NATO summit in Vilnius on Tuesday and Wednesday. 

 

Sweden's goal is for Turkey and Hungary, as the last two countries in the alliance, to give the green light to Sweden as a member.  

 

Kristersson and Erdogan. Photo: Burhan Ozbilici / AP  

 

"Very hopeful" 

 

Sweden's Foreign Minister Tobias Billström (M) tells Sweden's Radio-program P1 Morgon on Monday morning that he is positive that Turkey will approve Sweden as a NATO member. 

 

- I am very hopeful about this, he says.  

 

He also says that Sweden has fulfilled the requirements set by Turkey at the NATO meeting in Madrid last year. Similar tones have come from Jens Stoltenberg in recent days. 

 

Turkish President Erdogan, however, does not seem to be as positive.  

 

In a telephone meeting with US President Joe Biden on Sunday, he came up with a new plan agains Sweden. 

 

"The positive steps Sweden has taken towards Turkey's approval are of no use when the PKK continues to operate in Sweden," Erdogan said, according to the Turkish presidential office, something TT reported on.  

 

With "positive steps", he was referring to Sweden's new terror law.  

 

Tobias Billström.  

1 / 2Photo: Wiktor Nummelin/TT / TT Nyhetsbyrån  

 

"Is worried"  

 

Several experts have emphasized that the negotiating situation is strained.

   

Michael Sahlin, former Swedish ambassador to Turkey, says that this afternoon's meeting will decide a lot.

  

- It is about if Sweden has something more to offer today, or if we will say that we have done our part. Can Kristersson go to Vilnius and not bring any more Swedish concessions? I am worried that there will be a lot of pressure on Sweden to deliver something more, he says. 

  

- I hope we don't feel compelled to agree to concessions for which we have to pay a high price.  

 

Like what, can you give examples?  

 

- Erdogan does not think that the new terror laws make a difference, and says that the PKK is still parading in Swedish streets. It may be more of expulsions that he is after. 

  

- Then it is important to understand that Turkey is looking for guarantees also after a ratification. You want this to be permanent. It is possible that Kristersson has something with him about that, that they set up long-term meetings between Säpo and the security services in Turkey. It is a situation that cannot be desirable, that we would have a closer security relationship than with any other NATO country.  

 

Biden can make demands  

 

Last week, several steps were taken towards Swedish membership in NATO. Sweden's Ulf Kristersson met the USA:s Joe Biden, who in turn held the above-mentioned telephone meeting this weekend with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.  

 

In addition, an extraordinary meeting between Sweden, Finland and Turkey took place in Brussels.  

 

After Monday afternoon's meeting, Erdogan and Biden will also meet again at the NATO meeting.  

 

The US has previously made it clear in various ways that it will not sell any warplanes to Turkey until it accepts Sweden's NATO application. 

 

Sahlin also believes that Biden can make clearer demands on Turkey with the help of another important topic at the meeting - the war in Ukraine - to achieve a ratification in connection with or possibly after the meeting in Vilnius.  

 

New defense plans  

 

Even NATO as an organization can give Turkey "some goodies", believes Jan Hallenberg, senior research advisor at the Foreign Policy Institute, in an interview with Svenska Dagbladet. 
 

At the NATO meeting, new defense plans must be decided, both for northern, central and southern Europe. 

 

- I can imagine that the defense plan for southern Europe takes Turkey's interests into account more than originally thought, says Hallenberg to the newspaper. 

 

"Some kind of go-ahead"  

 

Regardless, Michael Sahlin believes that Sweden will get closer to NATO after the meeting in Vilnius, among other things through writings in the communique after the meeting.  

 

But everything depends on how the afternoon's meeting goes, he returns to: 

 

- I hope that today some form of a go-ahead is achieved which means that the Vilnius meeting can write about this so that it is presented to the world, to Vladimir Putin and to the Swedish people, as a big concrete step forward.  

 

At lunchtime, a new overture came from Erdogan, in which he can imagine "paving the way" for Sweden to join NATO - if negotiations also begin to admit Turkey into EU.