The question nobody wants to ask: Is Ukraine losing the war?

 

Russian invasion

Is Ukraine about to lose the war?

Wolfgang Hansson

This is a commenting text. Analysis and positions are the writer's.

Published 20.19

Worrying signals are coming from the front about Russian advances towards Ukraine's next largest city.

The offensive exposes Ukraine's three Achilles heels; lack of weapons, ammunition and manpower.

The question no one in the West wants to ask must be asked anyway. Is Ukraine about to lose the war?
 

Quick version

• Ukraine may be on the verge of losing the war against Russia due to its lack of weapons, ammunition and soldiers.
• Despite support from the West, including a large arms package from the United States, Ukraine still lacks the resources to withstand Russia's offensive. Help has always come a little too late.
• While the West hesitated, Russia has opened a third front in the war, leading to alarming advances on Ukraine's next largest city.             
  

At this time last year, there were still optimistic voices that a Ukrainian spring offensive could liberate the areas captured by Russia after the February 24, 2022 invasion.

Perhaps it would even be possible to liberate Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014.

But the spring offensive froze inside when weapons from the West were delayed. A short summer offensive came nowhere as the Russians had a long time to dig in behind triple defensive lines.

Then support from the West began to falter despite verbal assurances to the contrary. It took the US more than six months to approve a package worth SEK 600 billion of arms and ammunition.

As so many times before during the war, help from the West always comes a little too late.

For several months, the Ukrainian troops have lacked sufficient ammunition. When Russia attacked with ten artillery shells, Ukraine was only able to respond with one. In a war of attrition like this, everyone realizes that holding out in the long run is an impossible task. Even less to take territory.

Ukraine needs more long-range artillery to hit Russian positions and supply lines behind the front. Hopefully it's on its way since the US finally hammered out the aid package. But these weapons had been needed now or already several months ago.

Zelenskyi. Photo: Anna Tärnhuvud

Hiding

The F-16 planes that Denmark and the Netherlands donated to Ukraine should have already been in the air and stopped the Russian soldiers. Now it is said that they will be able to fly at the end of the summer at the earliest.

While Russia has turned to a war economy where everything is about producing more weapons and ammunition, the united West has not even managed to achieve the modest goal of supplying Ukraine with a million artillery shells.

For a long time, the Western world has been able to hide behind the fact that the long front was relatively still. Intense fighting has been going on with neither side managing to take more than small areas of land.

The West has leaned against the incompetent behavior of the Russian army during the invasion and thought that it will probably work out despite all the problems.

But what if it doesn't?

The Russians have long ago adapted to the fact that Ukraine did not become the mouthpiece they had first thought.

In recent weeks, initially small Russian successes along the border outside Ukraine's second largest city of Kharkiv have grown into an offensive which means that Ukraine is now forced to panic and evacuate civilians from villages and small towns that are only 40-50 kilometers from the million city of Kharkiv.

A house burns in Kharkiv after a Russian attack in early May. Photo: Andrii Marienko / AP

Exhausted soldiers

Russia has opened a third front in the war, forcing Ukraine to send reinforcements to the area. Which means that the Ukrainian troops along other front sections are being thinned out.

The third front may be a Russian sham maneuver to mask a larger attack along some other front section but Ukraine cannot afford to wait and see.

Many of the Ukrainian soldiers have been fighting more or less constantly for over two years without being relieved. Many fell during last year's attempt to take back territory.

While Putin can always throw in more soldiers, Ukraine suffers from a severe lack of manpower. A new law has lowered the conscription age from 27 to 25, but it took far too long for the country's government to make that decision.

With high fighting morale you can go very far and the Ukrainian one has been impressively high. But it cannot hide the fact that the Ukrainian army commits predatory behavior on its own soldiers. It can work if you are constantly reaping successes on the battlefield, but when the setbacks replace each other, it takes a toll on both psyche and combat morale.

There have been a few glimmers of light for Ukraine and the West in the past year. Ukraine has managed to knock out parts of the Russian Black Sea Fleet and thus keep grain exports going. With drone attacks and sabotage groups, they have been able to attack Russian oil facilities and other targets inside Russia. It has made Russians realize that the war may come to them too. But in practice these successes have not changed the dynamics of the war.
 

Europe must change

US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken is on an unannounced lightning visit to Kiev to assure Ukraine of continued US support.

But everyone knows that no one knows what it will look like in six months.

On November 5, there are presidential elections in the United States and there is a not insignificant risk that the next American president will be named Donald Trump. He threatens in the election campaign to sharply reduce support for Ukraine.

Europe's support cannot replace the US unless we change to a war economy just like Russia did.

So far, Ukraine is keeping the Russians at bay. From Kiev it is assured that the defense lines around Kharkiv are strong. But it is undoubtedly Russia that has a tailwind on the battlefield.

One does not have to be excessively pessimistic to be struck by the realization that Ukraine may actually lose the war.