The Middle East Crisis

The Middle East Crisis|Israel-Iran
Iran's supreme leader makes rare appearance

Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei will hold the Friday prayer in Tehran in connection with a memorial ceremony for the slain Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, reports the state-controlled Tehran Times.

It is described by TT as an unusual appearance and the announcement comes after reports that Khamenei was taken to a safe place, precisely because of the attack that killed Nasrallah.

Iranian sources have told Reuters that there is concern that Israel has succeeded in infiltrating the government.

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Source: Lebanon's army has responded to Israel's shelling

Lebanon's army says it has fired back at Israel's military, for the first time since the war in Gaza began a year ago. A Lebanese security source told Reuters.

The confrontation took place in connection with the death of a Lebanese soldier in an Israeli attack on a military post in southern Lebanon.

Israel and the Iranian-backed Lebanese militia Hezbollah have been shelling each other across the border regularly since October 7 last year. In recent days, Israel has escalated its offensive against Hezbollah and, among other things, launched a limited ground operation in southern Lebanon and carried out airstrikes against Beirut.

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The Middle East Crisis|Israel-Hezbollah
The question of Israel changing sides: Who should they negotiate with?

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu insists that attacks against Hezbollah in Lebanon must continue, rejecting calls for a ceasefire, Bloomberg reports.

If Netanyahu would eventually listen to the calls from, among others, the United States, there is still a problem, according to war researcher Ofer Fridman at Kings College in London. He tells the Wall Street Journal that it is unclear with whom Israel will negotiate because leader Hassan Nasrallah and several other high-ranking figures are no longer alive.

- An agreement would require a Hezbollah leader who is credible - to the Israelis, to the Hezbollah organization and to the Iranians.

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The Middle East Crisis|Votes on
Analysis: Ground invasion may be what Hezbollah wants

There has always been a risk that the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah will result in a major regional war, writes Dalia Dassa Kaye in an analysis in Foreign Affairs.

She writes that since October 7 last year it has been able to happen for two reasons: either that one party commits a mistake that leads to unexpected deaths, or that one party changes its "strategic calculation". Israel has now done that. According to Dassa Kaye, the Israeli establishment is fairly divided over how to deal with Gaza, while there is consensus around Hezbollah.

"Israel has been willing to go to great lengths to weaken Hezbollah and Iran, and it has already made significant progress on those fronts."

The Financial Times writes that Israel is superior to Hezbollah from the air, but that a ground invasion means something completely different. Emile Hokayem of the International Institute for Strategic Studies says Hezbollah will undoubtedly present a challenge to Israel.

He says such a move by Israel may even be what the Iran-backed group wants to happen.

- This is where they have a qualitative advantage, he says, and adds that the big question is how strong Hezbollah's ability really is after Israel's attacks.

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The Middle East crisis • The reactions
EU pessimism before Israel's response: "Is depressing"

Israel has been asked not to attack Iranian oil facilities or targets linked to the country's nuclear program, European diplomats told the Financial Times.

According to the newspaper's information, it is still unclear how Israel will respond to this week's robot attack, and Israel has not promised to heed the call either.

- It is depressing to see how little influence we have, says an EU source who testifies to pessimism in the talks from the European side.

An American source says that Israel wants to send a strong signal to Iran, but without it leading to further escalation.