Many regions already 1.5 degrees warmer

 

Petra Hedbom/TT

 

Published 05:45 | Updated 07:10  

Large parts of the world have already exceeded 1.5 degrees of warming.

New calculations indicate that the world is rapidly heading toward a two-degree increase.

Under the Paris Agreement, nations are committed to striving to limit the temperature rise to 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels.

The UN has concluded that this will not be possible, and new calculations suggest that this threshold has already been crossed in several parts of the world. In a study published in *Nature Climate Change*, researchers used historical data and climate models to forecast how warming affects different parts of the globe—including areas where data is scarce.

"We have used data and simulation models to estimate the impact of warming—for the first time—even in regions where comprehensive data has been lacking," said Francis Zwiers, a climate scientist at the University of Victoria in Canada, during a press briefing.

Already there

According to the researchers behind the study, there are strong indications that by 2025, many parts of the world will have already experienced approximately 90 percent of the warming expected when the planet reaches a 1.5-degree increase.

Parts of Europe and Canada are highlighted as regions that have already experienced two degrees of warming. “We now have further evidence that we will soon surpass the 1.5-degree target, and that we need to act quickly to avoid exceeding two degrees,” says Tong Li, also a climate researcher at the University of Victoria and one of the study’s authors.

Warmest October

The findings can support local adaptation planning and the assessment of climate-related damages and losses.

“When building bridges or houses, this must be factored into the calculations. We need to consider the climate we are designing for and how to address it,” says Tong Li.

The researchers are publishing their findings at the same time that the EU’s climate service, Copernicus, reports that October 2026 was the warmest October globally, with temperatures averaging 1.75 degrees above pre-industrial levels.

With only two months remaining, all signs point to the global average temperature for the year exceeding 1.5 degrees. If so, it would be the second calendar year—following 2024—to do so.