Low expectations may lead to progress at climate summit
This year’s climate summit, COP31, is taking place in a year when the negative impacts of a changing climate have been clearly evident. File photo. Photo: Dita Alangkara/AP/TT
Efforts to curb climate change are progressing slowly. For two weeks, nations from around the world will meet at COP31 to devise a plan for the planet’s future.
As is often the case, the issue of finance is high on the agenda.
This year’s meeting begins on Monday with a global review of the Paris Agreement and its goal of keeping global warming below 1.5 degrees—a target that increasingly appears impossible to reach.
The summit has been described as an “interim COP,” as there are no strict deadlines for the major decisions that need to be made. However, according to Martin Wadmark of the WWF, this is a double-edged sword.
“When expectations aren’t as high, progress can sometimes be made where there is the least resistance. But it could also lead to a deadlock in negotiations.”
According to Mattias Frumerie, Sweden’s Climate Ambassador and chief negotiator, much of the substantive work will take place outside the formal agenda—including discussions on countries’ climate action plans.
Fossil-free transition faces headwinds
An alliance of countries committed to pushing for the phase-out of fossil fuels has previously been formed. It has no formal say in the negotiations, and the steps toward a fossil-free future will be small—if any are taken at all—according to Mathias Fridahl, an expert on climate policy and a professor at Linköping University.
“I believe this issue must be approached indirectly, by highlighting alternatives that can foster both economic growth and public health.”
One such alternative is electrification—a path championed by the host nations, Turkey and Australia—even as both countries continue to invest in coal extraction and coal-fired power.
Meanwhile, the future of the UN’s Mitigation Work Programme (MWP) remains uncertain. Established at COP27 in Egypt in 2022, the program is now reaching the end of its five-year mandate; a proposed extension has faced stiff resistance from oil-producing nations.
On the guest list
Brazil’s recently re-elected president, Lula da Silva, has confirmed his attendance, but otherwise, world leaders are notably absent from COP31.
“Given where we stand in the climate transition, it is concerning that this topic isn’t receiving more attention in the debate,” says Mathias Fridahl.
At COP27, it was decided to establish a fund for “loss and damage,” intended to compensate poorer nations that fall victim to extreme weather events exacerbated by emissions from wealthier countries. However, the questions of who should pay—and how much—remain unresolved.
Mattias Frumerie identifies financing as a critical sticking point.
“At COP30, a decision was made to triple funding for climate adaptation, and many developing nations are seeking clarity on how this will be implemented,” he says.
This year, the event is co-hosted by two countries: Turkey and Australia. Turkey is hosting, while Australia holds the presidency and leads the negotiation process.
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