Putin's first victory in the war

Wolfgang Hansson 

 

Putin's first victory in the war 

 

Published: Yesterday 14.27 

 

This is a commentary text. Analysis and positions are the writer's. 

 

COLUMNISTS 

 

Ukraine's abandonment of the Mariupol steel plant is Vladimir Putin's first real victory in the war. One that he can use for propaganda purposes. 

 

The suspicion is that Russia intends to bring some of the Ukrainian soldiers to justice as neo-Nazi terrorists. 

 

It is difficult to find a greater symbol of Ukraine's resistance in the war than the battle for the half-million city of Mariupol and its steelworks Azovstal. 

 

For just over ten weeks, soldiers from tunnels under the steelworks have strongly resisted the Russian invasion army. They have been and are Ukraine's heroes. 

 

Now Mariupol will also be an important symbol of Russian success in the war. The fact that the Ukrainian soldiers finally laid down their arms and were taken to the Russian side is President Vladimir Putin's first real success in the war. 

 

- We need our heroes alive, Ukrainian President Zelenskyj justified the order to the soldiers to lay down their arms. 

 

 

Azov soldiers inside the steelworks, 10 May 2022. Photo: Dmytro 'Orest' Kozatskyi / AP 

 

A settlement has been reached between the warring parties, but what it means is shrouded in obscurity. 

 

It is clear that Ukraine expects the captured soldiers to be exchanged for Russian soldiers captured by Ukraine. 

 

But inside Russia, completely different tones are heard. 

 

Wants to execute the soldiers 

 

There, some MPs are demanding that the death penalty be reintroduced so that the Ukrainian soldiers can be executed. The President of the Duma wants to introduce a ban on "exchanging Nazi criminals". 

 

Executing the soldiers would be a war crime. But given all the war crimes that Russia is suspected of having committed in Ukraine, it is unlikely to stop the Kremlin if it wants to set an example. 

 

 

President Putin, together with Duman's President Vyacheslav Volodin. Volodin wants to introduce a ban on the exchange of "Nazi criminals". Stock Photography. Photo: Alexei Druzhinin / AP 

 

Next week, the Supreme Court of Moscow will address a request to brand the Azov battalion as a terrorist organization. Just as previously done with the opposition leader Alexei Navalny's anti-corruption movement. 

 

In the end, it is Putin who will decide what happens to the prisoners of war. 

 

Some fear that those belonging to the so-called Azov battalion will be brought to justice accused of being neo-Nazis. It would fit very well into Putin's account of why Russia invaded Ukraine. The motive was to "de-Nazize" the country. 

 

The Azov Battalion was formed in 2014 as a volunteer group to fight Russia in the war in eastern Ukraine. At that time it consisted partly of right-wing extremist elements. 

 

"Loska in the face" 

 

But today the battalion is incorporated into the Ukrainian army and there are no Nazis left, military experts claim. 

 

But because of its reputation, Putin could still use trials against soldiers in the Azov battalion for propaganda purposes and as proof that Russia's goal of "de-Nazifying" Ukraine was well-founded. 

 

But it would also make it much more difficult to start peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. Negotiations that have stalled since Ukraine's success in the war. 

 

Soldiers in an evacuation bus on their way to Russian-controlled Donetsk. May 17 Photo: AP 

 

The soldiers from Azovstal are Ukraine's heroes. If they are treated badly, it will hit back against Russia.

 

"It would be spitting Zelensky straight in the face and a sign that Putin is ready to escalate the war," Andrei Kolesnikov, an expert at the Carnegie Moscow Center, told The Guardian. 

 

At the same time, it is tempting for Putin to drum up support for the war in domestic opinion by staging a propaganda show. 

 

Putin had wanted his first success on the battlefield in time for the celebration of Victory Day in Russia on May 9, but he will still want to use it for propaganda purposes. 

Good news  

Apart from the fact that the city is almost completely bombed, we know very little about what is really happening in Mariupol. Either the information comes from the Russian army or from the Ukrainian side. No independent sources exist.  

The Russians claim that 959 Ukrainian soldiers gave up yesterday. It is unclear how many are left, but among them are said to be the highest Ukrainian commanders.  

The fact that Russia now in practice controls Mariupol means two things. Troops that participated in the final battle can be released to fight on other fronts in eastern Ukraine. 

Russia now has a land connection through eastern Ukraine down to the Crimean peninsula, which was illegally annexed in 2014. 

 Mariupol is not much to show for the Russians after almost three months of war but it is one of very few real successes. Putin's need for good news from the "military special operation" in Ukraine is great.