In a hundred days, Russia's invasion of Ukraine has changed the world in an incredibly profound way.

 

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Of: Wolfgang Hansson LAST UPDATED: LESS THAN 3 HOURS AGO Threatening famine with millions dead in Africa and economic crisis in the West. In a hundred days, Russia's invasion of Ukraine has changed the world in an incredibly profound way. Ukraine is worst affected but almost no one escapes the effects of the war. Some of the changes will be permanent. At first, almost no one thought there would be a war. Once Russia invaded, most hoped that the effects of the war could be isolated to Ukraine and Russia. After a hundred days of fighting, it is clear that Russia not only started a war against Ukraine but in practice against the whole of Europe and large parts of the world. Here are some of the consequences of all the killing and destruction in Ukraine. Until the invasion of Russia, Somalia was dependent on Ukrainian wheat. Now the country is on the verge of a famine. Until the invasion of Russia, Somalia was dependent on Ukrainian wheat. Now the country is on the verge of a famine. 1. Risk of famine Ukraine is one of the world's largest producers of wheat, sunflower oil and other agricultural products. More than 20 million tonnes of grain are now in silos in Ukraine, waiting to be exported. But as Russia blocks Ukraine's ports, the harvest risks rotting away. The UN is trying to create a safe sea corridor for freighters to be able to carry out the cargo, but it is doubtful whether the Russians will agree to it without receiving relief from Western sanctions. It is almost impossible to transport such large quantities by train or truck. As a result, people in the countries that depend on Ukraine's food exports are suffering from hunger or food shortages. Drought in East Africa means that there is a great need to buy extra grain on the world market at the same time as there is a shortage. That is why, among others, the UN warns of widespread famine and millions of deaths in East Africa. The war in Ukraine has triggered another sharp rise in oil and natural gas prices. The war in Ukraine has triggered another sharp rise in oil and natural gas prices. 2. An energy shock for the world The war has triggered a new sharp rise in oil and natural gas prices, which in turn has led to sharply rising electricity prices for households and businesses. A paradox is that Russia has so far profited from the war by sharply increasing export revenues from oil and gas. Europe has decided on an embargo on Russian oil, but it will not take effect until the turn of the year and until then, Russia may have found new buyers. To avoid people being forced to freeze this winter and companies strike, Europe must make sure to replenish its stocks of oil and natural gas before the cold hits. The use of fossil fuels has increased since the war broke out. 3. More difficult to achieve climate goals The war has increased the use of fossil fuels instead of the reduction needed to achieve the climate goals. Even the demand for dirty coal increases when it becomes uncertain with gas and oil from Russia. At best, the war could lead to the green transition being accelerated. The EU will invest heavily in more wind power and solar energy to compensate for the loss of Russian gas and oil. But the question is whether the money is enough when some countries also have to build expensive terminals to receive liquefied natural gas from the United States and the Middle East. Increased risk of recession in the world The war has paralyzed the economies of Ukraine and Russia but will also reduce growth in large parts of the rest of the world. Like the pandemic, the war contributes to disruptions in international supply chains. Goods do not arrive on time or not at all. At the same time, inflation is rising sharply. For consumers, this means that almost all goods increase sharply in price. It dampens consumption and risks leading to a recession. The central banks' response to inflation is to sharply raise interest rates, which, among other things, affects everyone who has loans, for example for housing. It risks further dampening growth. 5. Reduced aid to poor countries Aid organizations testify to how many rich countries are cutting back on their aid to developing countries in order to provide support to Ukraine instead. Sweden, for example, takes from the development assistance budget to finance the reception of Ukrainian refugees. It also means that a number of conflicts in other parts of the world are forgotten and receive less money and attention. Germany is arming its defenses as a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Germany is arming its defenses as a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Germany - from pacifist to military power

Before February 24, Germany spent minimal on defense. A result of many Germans' feelings of guilt over what they did during World War II.

Almost overnight, Germany has transformed from a pacifist nation into a future military power. The defense receives enormous contributions and in a short time it will reach two percent of GDP in defense spending. An effect that is likely to be lasting. 7. The EU reunited The EU has had a notoriously difficult time gathering for quick decisions. Everything is usually dragged on a long bench and no matter what the question is, there are always some who sit cross-legged. Russia's invasion has created a whole new consensus within the EU. In record time, together with the United States, the toughest sanctions to date against a large country have been introduced. It has also departed from previous principles and decided on just over one hundred billion kronor in military support to Ukraine. But does the agreement on the war last long? 8. Finland and Sweden apply for NATO membership After more than 200 years of freedom of alliance, Sweden has applied for NATO membership after Finland decided on the same thing. Two countries that previously worked closely with NATO but did not want to become full members. Putin's invasion completely changed that calculation. For Russia, this means that they now have another 135 km of direct border with NATO. Quite the opposite of what Putin wanted to achieve with his war in Ukraine. If Sweden and Finland are elected, they will not leave NATO even if Russia ends its war. Long queue of people fleeing the war in Ukraine queues outside the Swedish 9. Refugee disaster in Europe 6.5 million Ukrainians have fled to neighboring countries and the rest of Europe. It is the biggest refugee catastrophe in Europe since World War II, although some have begun to return since Russia seems to have given up trying to take Kyiv. Overall, the refugees have been well received. But the question is what will happen if the war lasts for several years. Then the refugees risk being seen as a burden. 10. An authoritarian bloc takes shape Geopolitically, the war has brought Russia and China closer together. Now the two authoritarian leaders Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin are facing the free world. China sees Russia as an important ally in the fight against the United States' attempts to keep China on the mat. Other Western countries have changed their attitude towards China. Like the United States, China's growing influence in the world is now seen as a threat to the liberal world order. A total turnaround compared to just ten years ago when many still believed that China would move in a democratic direction only the West expanded its cooperation with the communist giant. 11. A new parianation Russia is completely isolated from large parts of the world. They are thrown out of major sporting events such as the World Cup in Qatar this autumn. The exchange of sports and culture with the world has stopped almost completely. In addition, harsh financial sanctions will remain in place for a long time. The West no longer trusts Russia. The hope was that the Western response would force Putin to end his war. But so far there are no signs that he intends to give up. The sanctions are now so extensive that they contribute to the economic downturn in the world. Putin still does not throw in the towel because some countries, such as China, India and Turkey, have not imposed any sanctions and in practice Russia is helping to ride out the storm. This is just a selection of the changes brought about by the war. The longer the war lasts, the greater the risk of further and worsening effects. In one scale lies the Western world's struggle for freedom and democracy. If Russia succeeds in crushing Ukraine's burgeoning democracy, it may be the turn of other countries. A Russian victory threatens the liberal world order. The other scale is that Western arms aid to Ukraine prolongs the war, which in itself can become a threat to our prosperity. Freedom has a price. The crucial question for the end of the war is how much the Western world is prepared to pay.