Rarely has a bluff been so easy to call

Putin's bluff to appease Trump

Wolfgang Hansson

This is a commentary text. Analysis and positions are the writer's.

Updated 13.30 | Published 12.50

 

Vladimir Putin. Photo: Ramil Sitdikov / AP

Rarely has a bluff been so easy to call as Vladimir Putin's so-called Easter truce.

Putin's sole purpose was to try to appease President Trump after his threat to abandon attempts to make peace in Ukraine.

Can we hope that the US president will see through the bluff?

Quick version

• Putin's declaration of a temporary truce was intended to appease Trump after threats that the US would cancel its peace efforts in Ukraine.
• US Secretary of State Rubio suggested that the US would abandon its attempts at a ceasefire unless Russia showed more will for peace, which Putin perceived as a real threat.
• Trump has avoided criticizing Putin and has not put much pressure on Russia, but his political promise to quickly fix peace complicates the situation.

Everyone heard Trump say it at countless election rallies. Not only would he fix peace in Ukraine in 24 hours. It would also be very easy.

Confronted with the difficult reality, what everyone else understood has proven to be anything but easy.

Still, it came as a bit of a surprise when Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced that unless the parties showed more will for peace, the US would “within days” abandon attempts to achieve a ceasefire and focus on other things instead.

Whether this is a serious threat or just a manifestation of negotiation tactics remains to be seen. But the Russian dictator clearly perceived it as a real threat.

Putin also realized that Rubio's words about a lack of will for peace were primarily directed at Russia.

Ukraine has agreed to Trump's proposal for a 30-day ceasefire. Russia has said no by setting a series of conditions that Ukraine cannot possibly accept.

So, to at least show some goodwill on paper, Putin declared a unilateral ceasefire that would last for 30 hours this past weekend. A ceasefire that Russia, according to Ukraine, broke 3,000 times.

As a way to end the war, the temporary ceasefire was completely pointless.

Putin's motive is simply to try to keep Trump in a good mood and avoid being singled out as the villain who is making peace impossible.

Let's just hope that Trump doesn't buy Putin's feigned will for peace.

“Putin’s motive is simply to try to keep Trump in a good mood,” writes Wolfgang Hansson. Photo: Alex Brandon / AP

Because there is no doubt that Russia is the only party that wants to continue the war.

But the paradox is that Putin at the same time would like the Trump administration to continue its fruitless attempts to bring about a ceasefire.

Russia has had high hopes for Trump’s return to the White House. It is hoped that the West’s support for Ukraine will slowly erode when Trump no longer wants to send weapons and other aid to Ukraine.

But above all, Putin is counting on Trump to ease the harsh sanctions against Russia and break the country’s international isolation.

Without Russia having to give up its attempts to subdue Ukraine for that reason.

Putin wants to have his cake and eat it too.

Trump would certainly like to let him do that, but given his big-hearted election promise, it would be politically risky, not to say impossible.

Trump has so far not put any political or economic pressure on Russia to agree to a ceasefire. Instead, he has tightened the screws on the weaker party, Ukraine. The victim has had to pay while the perpetrator has so far gone free.

The American president is unlikely to end the peace efforts without at least putting more pressure on Russia first. After all, Putin has shown that he can stop fighting if he wants to.

Simply leaving the negotiating table and then normalizing relations with Russia would look very bad and probably be unacceptable even to some of Trump's party colleagues.

Trump would also not be able to get Europe to lift sanctions against Russia under such circumstances.

Giving up on the peace efforts would also mean accepting a severe political defeat. Trump's campaign promise to fix peace in 24 hours was one of his main foreign policy promises. Simply leaving it would undermine his political authority.

Previously, representatives of the Trump administration have threatened that if Russia does not agree to real peace negotiations, the United States will increase its support for Ukraine and send more advanced weapons.

But so far there is no indication that Trump himself is willing to go that route. He has so far been very reluctant to disagree with Putin. He has blamed the war on Zelensky, his own representative Joe Biden, NATO and a number of others. But never on Putin.

Later this week, the United States and Ukraine are scheduled to sign an agreement that gives the United States the right to revenues from Ukraine's extraction of minerals and rare earth metals. But is President Zelensky really prepared to sign such an agreement without security guarantees if the United States simultaneously gives up attempts to negotiate a ceasefire?