Warns of attack – against the rest of Europe: “Russia tempted”

Ukraine

Warns of Russian attack – immediately after the end of the war
Then the situation will be “very, very dangerous”

Niclas Vent

Published 2025-05-02 23.04

The Russian attack on the rest of Europe could come directly, if Ukraine is forced into a bad peace.

That's what the Danish defense chief Rasmus Jarlov says to Aftonbladet.

– In that situation, it is more likely that they will attack than that they will not, he says.

Quick version

• The Danish defense chief Rasmus Jarlov warns that if Ukraine is forced into peace on Russian terms, Russia could quickly attack Europe.
• If Ukraine is demilitarized, Jarlov expects a Russian attack, and he emphasizes the importance of supporting Ukraine to prevent a dangerous security situation in Europe.
• Military intelligence in the Nordic countries has different timelines, but there is a consensus that Russia could pose a threat to its neighbors in the near future.

As long as the war in Ukraine continues, a million armed Ukrainians stand as a shield between Russia and the rest of Europe. 

It is if Ukraine is forced to make peace on Russian terms that it will become really dangerous for Europe quickly, argues Rasmus Jarlov. He is chairman of the Danish Defense Committee and a member of the Folketing for the Conservative People's Party, the sister party of the Swedish Moderates.

“If Ukraine is forced to disarm, then I expect a Russian attack on Europe,” says Rasmus Jarlov.

One of Putin's stated war goals is for Ukraine to be “demilitarized.”

Russia has demanded a halt to arms deliveries to Ukraine and a halt to Ukrainian troop mobilization in order to even agree to a 30-day ceasefire.

          

        

         Rasmus Jarlov is the chairman of the Danish Defense Committee.

         1 / 2Photo: Private

"Smart to do it quickly"

- If Russia intends to attack Europe, and there is reason to believe that they do, then it would be smart to do it quickly, says Rasmus Jarlov.

This is because the window in which Russia can have a military advantage is closing.

Europe is rearming, and the Russians, unlike us, cannot afford to maintain their war economy, he says.

- If we spend 4 percent of GDP on defense, it is as if Russia were spending 40 percent, since our economy is ten times larger. Russia cannot maintain the size of forces it would need for a war with Europe over time. If they are building up such forces, it is because they intend to use them, says Rasmus Jarlov.

          

        

         Russian attack on the city of Zaporizhzhia in Ukraine on May Day.

         1 / 2Photo: Kateryna Klochko / AP

“Tempted to attack”

– Russia will be most tempted to attack Europe directly, because time is on our side.

His conclusion is simple: Ukraine must not be defeated under any circumstances.

– That is completely out of the question. We must do whatever it takes to prevent Ukraine from falling, including sending our own troops. I would rather not have to. But ultimately, if Ukraine is about to fall, we must send troops, because if that happens, it would be far too dangerous for Europe, he says.

– Either we support Ukraine now and stop Russia there, or we must stop them on the territory of the European Union later.

Right now, a lot depends on how the United States acts, he says.

           

           

         

          Russian forces at the front.

          1 / 3Photo: AP

“Dangerous situation”

– A lot could still get worse. Right now it feels like we are only five news cycles away from Trump sending weapons to Russia, and helping them attack Ukraine. I say that as an exaggeration, I don't think it will happen. But we cannot rule out that the US will lift its sanctions against Russia and stop arms deliveries to Ukraine. Then it will be very bad. It is a very dangerous situation for the whole of Europe.

Rasmus Jarlov sighs.

– There is no way that we in Denmark will let Russia attack the Baltic states without our help. Then we will be at war. Danish soldiers will be sent to fight and kill Russians. Many will die, and it will be a terrible situation. So it is very, very dangerous.

All the northern European military intelligence services agree that the threat from Russia exists, but have presented slightly different pictures of how urgent it is.

 

Trump and Zelensky met in the Vatican at the end of April. Photo: AP

“Almost no reserves”

The Norwegian Etterretningstjeneste, for example, writes that Russia needs 5–10 years to “fully” realize its expansion of several smaller brigades into larger divisions, and to establish a new army corps in Karelia. Several categories of equipment have “almost no reserves” for the next two years.

However, the Danish Forsvarets Etterretningstjeneste has presented a significantly tighter timeline:

Russia could be ready for a new local conflict with a neighboring country within six months of the end of the Ukraine war, and a regional conflict in the Baltic Sea region after around two years.

Have you received information from them, is that the type of intelligence you are basing yourself on?

– Yes. I think that is a realistic assessment, says Rasmus Jarlov.

– I am sure that the Russians know that there is no threat to Russia from Europe. We only want to be able to defend ourselves, there are no intentions to ever attack or destroy Russia. So when Russia builds up its military capabilities, it is for offensive operations, not defense.