China's training session for a future invasion

 

Wolfgang Hansson

 

Published: Today 14.26 

 

This is a commenting text. Analysis and positions are the writer's. 

 

COLUMNISTS 

 

China's pang pang display around Taiwan can be seen as a training session for a future invasion. 

 

Xi Jinping is at least as erratic as Vladimir Putin. 

 

In the past week, China has engaged in aggressive military exercises against the island it considers part of China but which most of the world regards as an independent state. 

 

Sharp robots have been lobbed across Taiwan and landed in the water on the other side. Chinese warplanes have repeatedly violated Taiwan's military air defense zone. 

 

Chinese warships have routinely crossed the center line of the strait between China and Taiwan, which until now was considered a border between the two states. 

 

In practice, China has been rehearsing a future blockade or invasion of Taiwan. A dress rehearsal for something Xi Jinping sees as inevitable. 

 

If you listen to what China and its president say, it is mostly a matter of time before Taiwan will be incorporated with the mainland. With violence if necessary. 

 

Coincidentally, this week China released a new white paper on Taiwan in which the regime in Beijing reiterates that if it does not go peacefully, it will use military means to subjugate the neighboring island. 

 

- We do not rule out violence and reserve the right to use all necessary means, they write. We cannot keep pushing the problem to future generations.

 

 

Xi Jingping. Xi Jingping. Photo: Li Gang/AP 

 

The clock is ticking 

 

In other words, the clock is ticking for Taiwan. Although Xi Jinping's stated deadline for a reunification is only 2049. 

 

The West did not take Vladimir Putin's threat to attack Ukraine seriously enough. It would be foolish to repeat the same mistake regarding Taiwan. 

 

It is hard to know how Russia's invasion of Ukraine affects Chinese plans. 

 

Considering how slow things have been for the Russians and what enormous losses they suffered, the Russian invasion can be seen as a deterrent example for China. 

 

But China may have a completely different interpretation. 

 

Perhaps China sees it as an excellent opportunity to attack Taiwan when the US and the rest of the West have their hands full helping Ukraine against Russian aggression. 

 

Would the US and NATO really be able to intervene against China in the event of an invasion of Taiwan? 

 

The latest turmoil surrounding the disputed island began with US Congress Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to the capital, Taipei. 

 

You can safely say that the timing was not the best. On the other hand, the Chinese had reacted equally angrily and violently regardless of when the visit had taken place. The fact that the United States is sending its second most powerful person on a visit to a country claimed by China is enough to send Xi Jinping's blood pressure racing. 

 

In the new white paper, China once again puts forward the idea of ​​a reunification with Taiwan under the formula of "one country, two systems". But the example of Hong Kong has clearly shown that China refuses to accept democratic elements and free courts on its territory. It would be pure suicide for Taiwan to agree to such a reunification. 

 

 

Chinese helicopters fly over Pingtan Island, near Taiwan. Photo: HECTOR RETAMAL / AFP 

 

Popular resistance 

 

Popular opposition on the island to reunification is also strong. 

 

Taiwan is today one of Asia's foremost democracies and the population increasingly considers itself Taiwanese rather than Chinese. 

 

It has been over 25 years since the last really serious confrontation over Taiwan between the US and China. Militarily, China was then a puny country compared to the United States and with a military budget that was only twice as large as Taiwan's. 

 

Today, the reality looks completely different. China is gearing up to the teeth. Already, the Chinese navy has more warships than the US. China's military budget is 26 times that of Taiwan's. In absolute terms, only the United States invests more in defense than China. 

 

Today, in other words, China has the capacity to win a war against Taiwan. The main thing that makes Beijing hesitate is that it does not know how forcefully the US will help Taiwan. 

 

Judging by Nancy Pelosi's visit and President Joe Biden's statements in the past year, the US will not leave Taiwan in the lurch. 

 

If China is invaded, Xi Jinping must expect that the consequence will be a military confrontation with the superpower USA. So far, it is enough to deter China. 

 

But for how much longer? 

 

 

Nancy Pelosi. Nancy Pelosi. Photo: AP