Zelenskyy launches counteroffensive with a dark insight

Wolfgang Hansson

Zelenskyy launches counteroffensive with a dark insight  

Published: Today 07.37  

This is a commenting text. Analysis and positions are the writer's. President  

Volodymyr Zelenskyy has confirmed that the Ukrainian counter-offensive has started. Photo: Christine Olsson/TT  

COLUMNISTS 

Rarely has a military offensive been so talked about and hyped in advance.  

But when Ukraine did strike, it was hardly noticed externally.  

Lately, it is clear how Ukrainian representatives have tried to lower expectations of what a counter-offensive can achieve. 

Regardless, it could be a turning point in the war. After months of waiting and anticipation, the outside world can stop speculating.  President Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirms that the Ukrainian counter-offensive has started, although he is understandably cautious about giving any details. It was a summer offensive instead of the expected spring offensive.

At this early stage, it is impossible to say how it will go, even if Russia has published pictures of burning Leopard tanks as proof that the offensive has been successful. 

But one thing is clear. On the Ukrainian side, leading spokespeople are trying to dampen expectations of quick and easy victories. 

Slowly, it has begun to sink in that it is much easier to defend a territory than to try to regain terrain where the enemy has had the opportunity for months to dig in both double and triple lines of defense.  

Ukrainian commanders now often point out that the Russians have improved and learned the Ukrainian battle tactics.  

Throughout the long run-up to the offensive, the tone of voice of Zelenskyi and his commanders has been very optimistic. If only Ukraine received enough modern weapons from the West, they could quickly retake the land the Russians occupied after the invasion on February 24 last year. Perhaps one could even take back Crimea and the parts of Donbass that Russia occupied back in 2014.  

Tougher resistance  

Now the West has supplied modern tanks and long-range artillery. The only thing left on Ukraine's wish list is fighter jets, and even there promises have been made. 

It remains for Ukraine to show that it can continue to be militarily creative and maintain a high combat morale.  

From the first reports from the front, it can be concluded that this time the Russians are resisting much harder than during the chaotic retreat from the Kharkiv area last year. Breaking through the Russian lines will be difficult and costly in terms of loss of life and military equipment. It is likely to be months rather than weeks.

Ukrainian forces fire artillery at the Russians at the front in Bakhmut. Photo: Efrem Lukatsky/AP  

It is also not clearly defined what a Ukrainian victory looks like. Zelenskyy has not publicly set out any clear goals.  

Do you have to take back all the areas that Russia has taken since the invasion in 2022 or is it enough to greatly decimate the Russian troops in numbers and combat power?  

Is it realistic to bet on also taking back Crimea and the entire Donbass region? 

In the outside world that supported Ukraine, people wait impatiently and now even a little anxiously for results.  

How much of a difference will the advanced weapons from the West really make? 

Extreme measures  

Ukraine's offensive will however be a turning point in the war.  

If you are reasonably successful and force the Russians to retreat, it could mean the beginning of an end to the war where Putin is forced to realize that he has made a catastrophic miscalculation. Ukraine will be able to negotiate peace from a position of strength.  

It will be easier for the West to justify continued extensive support for Ukraine with NATO and EU membership looming on the horizon. 

If the offensive fails completely or yields only very limited success, Ukraine risks losing support in the Western world. It is not something that will happen overnight. But in the long run, it may be difficult for Europe's leaders to justify to the voters continued very expensive investments in helping Ukraine.  

Above all, the presidential election in the United States in just over a year is a point of concern for Ukraine. If Joe Biden loses, the risk is imminent that American support will be sharply reduced. Especially if the pro-Putin Donald Trump returns to the White House.  

The USA provides the absolute greatest support. Europe cannot support Ukraine alone.  

Even a very successful Ukrainian offensive in which it regains its entire territory can paradoxically be a problem for NATO. 

Right now, the fear of Putin using nuclear weapons is not very great, but if Russia loses Crimea and Donbass, he may feel his existence as a leader threatened. Then the risk of Putin taking extreme measures increase