Expert: Increases chances for peace in Iran

TT

Published 19.19

          

          Anders Persson, political scientist at Linnaeus University. Archive photo. Photo: Johan Nilsson/TT

The ceasefire in Lebanon is a triumph for US President Donald Trump – but also for Iran, which manages to link the wars.

– I think it increases the chances for a more lasting ceasefire between the US and Iran, says Middle East expert Anders Persson.

A ten-day ceasefire is beginning in Lebanon, US President Donald Trump announced on Thursday evening.

It is a great triumph for Trump personally, emphasizes Anders Persson, lecturer in political science at Linnaeus University.

– He has probably put quite a lot of pressure on Israel to do this, it seems.

A win for Iran

But it can also be seen as a victory for Iran, which wanted to link the ceasefire in Lebanon with the ceasefire in Iran.

– This has been one of the Iranians' demands. Now that that demand has been met, the conditions should be better for a more lasting ceasefire in Iran.

– There are a lot of other issues to be resolved as well, but the conditions should be better.

Hezbollah's weapons

The question is how long the ceasefire will last and what is required to achieve a lasting peace. Persson sees two stumbling blocks here, the first: Iran-backed Hezbollah's weapons.

– Even though Hezbollah is weakened, they have still resisted well and fired a lot at Israel during this war, more than many thought they would.

The second stumbling block is Israel's occupation of parts of southern Lebanon. Moderate political forces in Israel are open to leaving occupied territories in exchange for peace, but the more hawkish Israeli right might want to annex them.

– And then you can say goodnight to a peace agreement.