Blame Ukraine Rewarded with oil rebate Rulers got high-five
Russia's invasion of Ukraine
This is a commentary text. Analysis and positions are the writer's.
Of: Wolfgang Hansson
Last updated: Less than 50 minutes ago
The Western world is united as never before in its condemnation of Putin's war in Ukraine.
But it does not look like that everywhere.
In large and important countries, Putin has no stamp of approval and refuses to impose sanctions on Russia.
When the European Commission this week presented a new package of sanctions against Russia, it covered the very heart of Russia's public finances, the export of oil. They are said to be hitting the Russian economy extra hard.
The problem is that if the Western world does not buy the oil, then there are others who do.
At the same time as Ursula von der Leyen presented the sanctions, the Prime Minister of India Narendra Modi was in Copenhagen where he met the Nordic prime ministers.
India is one of the countries that has not taken any action against Russia. The Nordic countries tried to press to convince Modi. There is no indication that he will change.
Instead of participating in international sanctions against Russia, India has chosen to increase its purchases of Russian oil. As a thank you, you get a real discount on the price.
India, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi, are among the countries that have not taken any action against Russia. Photo: Manish Swarup / AP
India is just one of several examples of heavyweight countries that do not share the Western world's perception of the war in Ukraine at all or simply let their own considerations take precedence over the rules-based world order that says no one should invade a peaceful neighbor.
Undermines sanctions
Otherwise, it is easy to be led to believe that the whole world is united against Russia. After all, 141 countries voted in the UN General Assembly on March 2 to condemn Russia's invasion.
Only four countries followed Russia and voted against.
But as many as 35 countries abstained and avoided taking a stand.
One reason why the economic sanctions from the Western world do not necessarily mean that Russia is forced to crawl to the cross and end the war.
Russian President Vladimir Putin. Photo: Alexander Demyanchuk / AP
Researchers at the Institute for Peace and Conflict Research in Uppsala claim that one of two prerequisites for economic sanctions to succeed is that they are global. The second condition is that the population of the affected country supports the sanctions.
In the case of Russia, none of these factors are met.
When sanctions are not global, there are always countries and individuals who are willing to act as sanctioners.
If nothing else for financial gain. The fact that the Western world has banned the export of equipment that the Russians can use for weapons production does not automatically mean that no such equipment can reach Russia.
Buy cheap oil
Different countries have different reasons for refusing to condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
China is Russia's main ally. President Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin see a common enemy in NATO. For China, it is important to have a united front together with Russia to the west, which is believed to be trying to suppress China's ambitions to become a world power in all areas.
China has not to any great extent dared to break the sanctions that the West has imposed on Russia, but at the same time blames the war on NATO. In the social media, which is tightly controlled by the Communist Party, Putin is a hero.
Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin stand side by side. Photo: Alexander Zemlianichenko / AP
India's position is based on a traditional friendship with Moscow. In addition, Russia has been a reliable supplier of weapons even during periods when the West refused to sell.
India is in a construction phase and the country's energy needs are constantly growing. Being able to buy cheap Russian oil is more important than taking a moral stance that satisfies the Western world.
During the struggle for liberation from colonialism, many countries in Africa received support from the Soviet Union. That gratitude and the Cold War mentality linger. They are reluctant to break their friendship with Moscow. This also applies to another country as west-friendly as South Africa.
Refuses sanctions
Latin American countries such as Argentina, Brazil and Mexico have admittedly distanced themselves from the war but refused to join any sanctions. In Brazil, both the heavily criticized right-wing president Jair Bolsonaro and his left-wing challenger Lula da Silva think that NATO and Ukraine bear at least as much blame for the war as Russia.
Their view is that Ukraine would have clearly stated that it does not intend to join NATO.
A sign that in many parts of the world there is still a view that large countries have the right to spheres of interest at the expense of the smaller countries.
Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro thinks Ukraine owes at least as much to the war as Russia. Photo: Eraldo Peres / AP
But Putin's hugs are also closer.
Serbia, a candidate country for the EU, admittedly voted in favor of the UN resolution condemning the war, but at the same time made it clear that it refuses to impose any sanctions on Russia. Serbia is still outraged that NATO bombed the country in 1999 when then-leader Slobodan Milosevic ousted the people of Kosovo.
Russia supports Serbia's line that Kosovo is not an independent nation. An important reason for the warm relations between the countries.
Countries such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have half-heartedly condemned Russia's invasion but have continued to maintain friendly relations with Moscow. There is no question of sanctions.
Got high-five from Putin
Saudi ruler Muhamed Bin Salman, commonly known as MBS, recalls that Putin greeted him with a high-five at the 2018 G-20 summit in Buenos Aires when other world leaders turned their backs on him after the assassination of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul.
The US and the EU have repeatedly appealed to the oil-producing countries of OPEC to increase oil production to make it easier to boycott Russian oil. But met by the cold hand from above all Saudi Arabia. The Saudis are still angry at Joe Biden for strongly condemning MBS for ordering the assassination of Khashoggi.
OPEC countries are making billions on the rise in oil and natural gas prices in connection with the war in Ukraine.
Countries such as the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, led by Muhamed Bin Salman, have half-heartedly condemned Russia's invasion but have continued to maintain friendly relations with Moscow. Photo: Dan Kitwood / Getty Images
In addition to the more selfish motives, there is also in many countries an aversion to the western world that is considered to behave hypocritically and like to ride high horses.
Many take the US invasion of Iraq in 2003 as an example. That time, the United States rounded off the UN, which refused to approve a war. The United States invaded despite the fact that there was no evidence that Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein hid nuclear weapons or other weapons of mass destruction.
Cabbage soup theory
The fact that the United States violated international law is not an argument as to why it is okay for Russia to invade Ukraine. But in many parts of the world, this cabbage soup theory is marketed that the United States is not a bit better than Russia.
This does not mean that these countries necessarily like the war, but they do not see Europe as an existential threat. For many, it is far away from their own backyard.
This autumn, the powerful G-20 group will meet in Indonesia. The United States and other Western nations have demanded that President Putin be ousted. However, the host country has announced that it will invite Putin and that he is welcome.
How it will be in the end remains to be seen. Does Putin even dare to leave Russia?
But it illustrates that large parts of the world do not see Putin as the pariah he has become in the West.
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