The man's comeback would send shockwaves across the world

 

Wolfgang Hansson 

 

Everything is about the man - even though he is not on the ballot 

 

Published: Less than 2 hours ago 

 

Updated: Less than 50 min ago 

 

This is a commenting text. Analysis and positions are the writer's. 

 

COLUMNISTS 

 

He is not on the ballot. Nevertheless, in many ways he has been the protagonist of the election. 

 

If Donald Trump runs in the next presidential election, it will send shock waves through the world while polarizing the United States even more. 

 

The mid-term elections are basically about who will have power in Congress for the next two years. 

 

But in practice, the election is as much about Donald Trump's influence and expected comeback. 

 

In several of his election speeches in the past week, he has hinted very clearly that he intends to stand in the election in 2024. A definitive announcement is expected to come on Tuesday next week. But after all the expectations he has built up, it would be met with huge disappointment by his supporters if Trump doesn't show up. 

 

For the rest of the US and the rest of the world, it's another five. 

 

Trump's four years in power were a single roller coaster, a constant stressor for world politics. Which culminated in the storming of the Capitol on January 6 of last year. 

 

After that, most people, including many of his supporters, probably thought we had seen the last of Trump in American politics. Not least after the devastating hearings for him in the special congressional committee that examined how the president acted before and during his supporters' attacks on Congress. 

 

There, ministers and close associates, all Republicans, testified about how Trump was in practice trying to carry out a coup d'état. 

 

Nevertheless, in the eyes of the voters, it does not seem to have disqualified the ex-president. That Trump is still such a powerful force in politics is astounding and worrisome for the future. But also an illustration of the almost religious devotion that supporters show Trump. 

 

Nothing seems to be able to shake it. 

 

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Former President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally in support of Sen. Marco Rubio's campaign, R-Fla., at the Miami-Dade County Fair and Exposition, November 2022. Photo: Rebecca Blackwell/AP 

 

Bring in loyal politicians 

 

Despite being impeached twice (but acquitted) and having a number of criminal investigations pending against him, Trump still dominates the Republican Party. 

 

By lending his support to candidates in the midterm elections who embrace his false claim that Biden cheated his way to victory in the 2020 presidential election, he is likely to succeed in getting a number of loyal politicians elected to positions that could determine the outcome of the 2024 presidential election. 

 

Candidates in swing states who will refuse to accept the result if they lose in the midterm elections and will only certify a result in the next presidential election on the condition that Trump emerges victorious. 

 

In other words, we risk experiencing the circus from the 2020 election once more in two years and perhaps already after the mid-term elections, depending on the outcome. 

 

It's all part of Trump's strategy to pave the way for his own comeback. Everyone knows that the real estate billionaire can't stand to lose. The arrangement is a way to eliminate the risk of this happening. 

 

The run-up to the congressional elections has allowed Trump to ride the pace of his own popularity, and he's clearly liked what he's seen. 

 

Two years in American politics is an eternity. The fact that Trump feels that he already wants to make a statement this far in advance can have several reasons. 

 

* He wants to avoid other Republicans who are impatiently stomping on the porch to try to become president from announcing their candidacy. Because despite the fact that Trump continues to hold large parts of the party in his grip, there are those who are eager to take over. Like, for example, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. If Trump runs, most of the challengers will throw in the towel and wait until 2028. Florida Gov. 

 

Florida Gov. Republican Ron DeSantis speaks during a campaign rally Monday, Nov. 7, 2022, in Hialeah. Photo: Lynne Sladky / AP 

 

Prosecution becomes more difficult 

 

*Trump has the lead role in a number of criminal investigations. The FBI is investigating whether he illegally took classified documents from the White House. He is accused of trying to pressure election officials to change the results in the state of Georgia. 

 

Perhaps Trump hopes that it will be more difficult for the Justice Department and others to prosecute him if he is a presidential candidate. He hopes it will give him extra protection because a prosecution would appear politically motivated. 

 

The question is how a Trump candidacy affects the Democrats.

According to his own statement, Joe Biden ran in 2020 because he felt he was the only one who could defeat Trump. If Trump runs, the chance increases that Biden will feel compelled to do it again.  

But the question is what a loss in the midterm elections means for Biden. He will soon turn 80 and there are already big question marks about his ability to govern. A number of opinion polls today give Trump the victory over Biden if they were pitted against each other again.  

At the same time, there is no other obvious and popular candidate the Democrats can put forward. 

In other words, it is a golden opportunity for Trump if he finally decides to run.