Unexpected number: He loses the most votes to the joker

Donald Trump

Measurement: He is hurt the most by Kennedy being around

Hans Österman

Updated 01.00 | Published 00.52

Trump or Biden?

The issue may be decided by the black sheep of the Kennedy clan.

A new survey gives an unexpected message about who is most harmed by his candidacy.

On Sunday, NBC News released its latest poll ahead of the November presidential election. Trump gets 46 percent and Biden 44 percent. This means that the gap has narrowed from the survey in January when Trump led by 47-42.

The survey also shows that the hype surrounding the election is historically weak. Not in 20 years has the percentage of voters who say they are "very interested" been so low.

- I don't think Biden has gotten that much done as president. And if Trump is elected, it just feels like it will be the same as before Biden was elected. There's no candidate I'm excited to vote for, Devin Fletcher, 37, a Democratic voter from Michigan, told NBC.

The Joker is only 70

The statement reflects the frustration among some voters that they only have two old men to choose from.

But that is not entirely true. There is a not quite as old old man who can do it for both Donald Trump,  77, and Joe Biden, 81:

Robert F. Kennedy Jr., 70.

He is the nephew of President John F Kennedy who was shot dead in 1963 and the son of Robert F Kennedy who was a presidential candidate when he met the same fate five years later.

RFK Jr. considered running in the 2024 Democratic primary, but launched as an independent candidate instead. In the latest national polls, more than 10 percent say they intend to vote for him in the presidential election.

That's a historically high number for a joker, but gives him no chance of winning.

Yet he can decide everything.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on site at an election campaign earlier in April this year. Photo: Charlie Neibergall / AP

New measurement: He takes the most damage

Political scientists and experts in the United States have long divided over which of Trump and Biden is most harmed by Kennedy's involvement. The general view, supported by several previous polls, is that he would cannibalize more of Biden's Democratic base.

But in the NBC survey, a different picture emerges. When the participants were given five names to choose from, the votes were distributed as follows:

Joe Biden 39 percent.

Donald Trump 37 percent.

Robert F Kennedy Jr 13 percent.

Jill Stein 3 percent.

Cornel West 2 percent.

A deeper dive into the numbers shows that 15 percent of those who would vote for Trump in a duel against Biden switch to Kennedy when given the opportunity. The corresponding share for Biden voters is only 7 percent.

In addition, overall approval ratings for RFK are higher among Republicans than Democrats. For the former, 40 percent say they are positive and 15 percent negative. Among Democrats, the same figures are 16 percent and 53 percent, respectively.

- Right now, Kennedy seems to be attracting more of Trump's voters than Biden's, says Democratic opinion maker Jeff Horwitt, who, together with his Republican colleague Jeff Horwitt, is behind NBC's survey.

Joe Biden. Photo: Alex Brandon/AP

The family sided with Biden

As Aftonbladet's foreing commentator Wolfgang Hansson recently noted, Kennedy has common ground with both main candidates.

He is a vaccine skeptic, criticizes banks and big tech companies and wants to reduce the US military presence abroad - partly the same message that Trump pushed in his first campaign. At the same time, his surname is forever associated with the Democrats and not least his mythical uncle JFK.

Both Trump and Biden have recently switched up the attacks on Robert F Kennedy Jr.

As recently as a few days ago, his sister Kerry attended a campaign meeting with  Biden in Philadelphia. Another 13 members of the clan have backed the sitting president.

- We want to make it crystal clear that our opinion is that the best way forward for the United States is for Joe Biden and Kamala Harris to be elected for another four years, Kerry Kennedy said.

            
           Donald Trump Photo: Spencer Platt / AP

Has presented conspiracy theories

Robert F Kennedy Jr has, like Trump, claimed that childhood vaccines cause autism. He has also trumpeted a number of other conspiracy theories: That the CIA would have been behind the murder of his uncle and that the coronavirus would have been designed to affect some ethnic groups but not others.

The latter statement was caught on video last summer and prompted several family members to take RFK in the ear publicly.

"I STRONGLY condemn my brother's deplorable and untrue comments," sister Kerry tweeted.

When Aftonbladet visited Kennedy's campaign in Iowa just over a month later, it was clear that he has supporters who also support Donald Trump. 

 

- Trump-Kennedy 2024! shouted someone in the audience.  

 

After the speech, he was asked if it would be a possible constellation: 

 

- That will not happen, he said shortly.