The war may have been in vain - cold shower for Netanyahu and Trump
Trump dropped the super bomb.
To stop the atomic bomb.
Now the Pentagon's spy agency is dropping a new bomb - the attack may have been in vain.
"Fake news! Iran's nuclear facilities are completely destroyed," writes an angry Trump.
Quick version
Israel attacked Iran around the clock for twelve days.
President Trump dropped 14 super bombs on Iran's nuclear facilities.
The goal of the military operations was to knock out Iran's ability to manufacture nuclear bombs.
- Iran's key nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally destroyed, Trump said proudly in a televised speech after the bombing.
Already in the hours after the attack, voices were raised that it is too early to be so sure about the result.
Secret report
On Tuesday evening, the skeptics got their money's worth.
Both CNN and the New York Times published information from a secret intelligence report from the Defense Intelligence Agency, the military's equivalent of the CIA.
According to the DIA report author, Iran's nuclear program is likely almost intact.
It is true that the war and the bombing have caused Iran a lot of damage, but no more than the nuclear energy program has been delayed a little.
- The assessment is that the United States delayed them by a few months, maybe, at most, a source tells CNN.
The White House is in turmoil
The report also contradicts Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's triumphant statements on Tuesday morning, when he confirmed the ceasefire with Iran.
- We sent Iran's nuclear energy program to the trash, says Netanyahu according to the Times of Israel.
Early Wednesday morning, a furious Trump commented on the report from the NATO summit in The Hague.
"Fake news CNN together with the New York Times have joined forces in an attempt to downplay one of the most successful military attacks in history. Iran's nuclear facilities are completely destroyed," he writes on Truth social.
Hiding their uranium
The language in the leaked report is somewhat drier.
It says that the enrichment halls 90 meters under the mountain in Fordo have probably not collapsed. The centrifuges that enrich the uranium are essentially intact.
However, it is believed that the entrance tunnels have collapsed.
It is also believed that the power system that supplies the facility with electricity is damaged.
Not even Iran's existing stockpile of enriched uranium was knocked out. It had probably already been moved to a secret location.
In addition, Iran is believed to have built secret backup enrichment facilities in the event that the main operations in Fordo, Natanz and Esfehan were bombed.
Can make the bomb
According to the DIA, Iran can still make a nuclear bomb relatively quickly.
However, it is not believed that a quickly made bomb will be particularly advanced, rather a rudimentary and relatively small charge.
The authors say that it is unclear how much damage the more advanced part of Iran's nuclear weapons program has taken.
It is also difficult to predict how long it will take to excavate the facility in Fordo and restore it to usable condition.
Fordo intact
According to CNN, sources within the Israeli defense also say that Fordo is largely intact.
However, the Israelis believe that the combined effect of the US and Israeli attacks has delayed Iran's nuclear weapons program by two years.
The US Secretary of Defense believes that the report is wrong, and that whoever leaked it is out to harm President Trump.
- Our massive bombs hit exactly the right place on each target and worked perfectly. The outcome of those bombs is buried under a mountain of gravel in Iran. Anyone who says the bombs were not devastating is just trying to undermine the president and the successful mission, Hegseth tells CNN.
Witkoff critical
Trump's envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, also believes that the report is wrong, and that the facilities in Fordo, Natanz and Esfahan are destroyed.
– All three of these had most, if not all, centrifuges damaged or destroyed in a way that will make it almost impossible for them to revive the program. In my opinion, and in the opinion of many other experts who have seen the raw data, it will take several years, he tells Fox News.
CNN's sources also say that the United States chose to only use Tomahawk missiles to attack surface targets at the Esfahan facility, because the rock cavities there are so deep that even the bunker buster bomb cannot reach them.
The White House has confirmed that the report is authentic.
Late Tuesday night, another cloud of worry appeared in the sky for Netanyahu and Trump.
Iran continues
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi tells Iranian state television that Iran will continue with its nuclear energy program.
– The nuclear program continues, the national will is stronger than ever, he says.
A more conciliatory tone comes from Iran's president, Masoud Pezeshkian.
In a transcript of his phone call with United Arab Emirates President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Pezeshkian opens up for nuclear talks.
“Iran absolutely does not, and will not, pursue a nuclear weapon,” he says.
Steve Witkoff is on the same track.
“We are already talking to each other. I think the talks are promising. We are hopeful that we can achieve a long-term peace agreement that lifts Iran,” he says.
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