Putin the main suspect - but there may be others who want to sabotage

 

 

Of: 

 

Wolfgang Hansson

 

Published: Today 16.09 

 

This is a commenting text. Analysis and positions are the writer's. 

 

COLUMNISTS 

 

When both the Swedish and Danish governments assume that sabotage is behind the leaks in the Nord Stream gas pipeline, the given question arises. 

 

If so, who is behind it? 

 

Russia is the main suspect but there may be other explanations. 

 

President Vladimir Putin has spent the last year trying to create chaos and unrest in the Western world. His goal is clear – to cripple Europe's economies as punishment for the sanctions against Russia and the West's aid to Ukraine. 

 

In that pursuit, he has a very effective weapon. The energy weapon. 

 

Europe is still somewhat dependent on Russian gas and oil. But Putin has realized that his invasion of Ukraine means the West no longer wants to deal with Russian energy.

 

 

Coast Guard aircraft have taken pictures of the leak. Photo: Coast Guard / TT NEWS AGENCY 

 

So why not use that weapon one last time by blowing some holes in the Nord Stream gas pipeline at the bottom of the Baltic Sea. 

 

The attack, whoever is behind it, is causing great concern. We have seen how it forced both the Swedish and Danish governments to hold crisis meetings. It disrupts shipping along an important transport route. It constitutes an anonymous warning that Russia may next consider using heavier weapons. Perhaps its nuclear arsenal. 

 

The fact that the gas pipelines are necessary to export the Russian gas speaks against Russia. But if the West does not want it, Putin may think that these pipelines have played their part. 

 

There is of course the possibility that someone other than Russia is behind it. 

 

 

Thanks to Putin's energy war, the West is entering a recession the depth of which we have not yet seen. Photo: Mikhail Metzel/AP 

 

** The US has long been opposed to Nord Stream because it dislikes that Europe has become dependent on Russian gas and would rather sell American liquefied gas, LNG. One can imagine that the USA seizes the opportunity and ensures that Europe will not be able to depend on Russian energy again at some point in the future. But it feels like a far-fetched track because the explosions at the same time play into Russia's hands. 

 

** China would like to have access to the Russian gas, preferably at a bargain price. China may therefore have an interest in limiting the possibilities of exporting Russian gas to Europe. Then Russia becomes more dependent on China as a customer. Negotiations are underway between Russia and China to build a new pipeline from Siberia. However, this does not appear to be a particularly credible explanation either. 

 

** Ukraine may want to stop the ability of Russia to export gas. But do they have the ability to carry out this kind of sabotage? 

 

He has created chaos in the West 

 

I have previously written that Putin shot himself in the foot in such a way that all the political demands he placed on NATO for a new world order that takes care of Russia's interests failed after the invasion. 

 

Both Sweden and Finland have applied for NATO membership. Russia will soon have another 135 km border directly with NATO. The risk, seen from Russian eyes, that Ukraine will end up in the Western camp has increased significantly. At point after point, Russia's invasion has had the opposite effect to what Putin hoped. 

 

But on a not unimportant point he has succeeded. Putin has created chaos in the West and some other parts of the world. 

 

Something that authoritarian regimes are experts at exploiting. 

 

The war in Ukraine, with some help from the pandemic, has plunged the West into an economic crisis where interest rates, gas and food costs are rising steeply. Which leads to strong dissatisfaction among people in Europe and the USA. A dissatisfaction that affects the governments that rule. 

  

Can think they played their part 

 

Initially, the leaks caused the gas price to rise. It is good for Russia because it costs the West more and more money to try to replace the energy that Russia used to provide. This increases the chance that the West will ultimately not be able to financially afford to send heavy weapons to Ukraine. 

 

On top of that are the rampant electricity prices which are not only an existential threat to millions of individual citizens in Europe but also to tens of thousands of businesses. 

 

Thanks to Putin's energy war, the West is entering a recession the depth of which we have not yet seen. 

 

On that point, the Russian dictator has succeeded beyond expectations. 

 

 

Danish Defense photo of the leak. Photo: Forsvaret / Ritzau Scanpix 

 

Stream of Russian men 

 

It is true that the Russian economy is also threatened with collapse, but that is the price Putin is prepared to pay to break the West. Russians are used to poverty. In the West, we are spoiled brats in Putin's eyes. 

 

The leaks have become world news and demonstrate the ability of the perpetrator, regardless of who it is, to attack vital infrastructure. They should serve as a warning to all countries in Europe to greatly strengthen their protection around important facilities. Russia will certainly stop at nothing to force the West to accept Putin's demands for a Russian sphere of interest. 

 

We should also watch out for the flow of Russian men who are now fleeing the country to Europe. An excellent opportunity for Putin to plant sleeper spy cells and sabotage groups in the West. 

 

According to the experts, it will take weeks before robots can be sent down to inspect the damage to the gas line. It is far from certain that, based on how it looks, it is possible to determine who is behind it. The fingerprints are said to be few. 

 

We may never find out what really happened. Which naturally in itself creates even more uncertainty. 

 

But that will not prevent speculation from running high and that, in the absence of concrete evidence, many will still draw their own conclusions.