Only Russia wins from the gas attack

Lena Mellin 

Published: Today 09.23 

 

Updated: Less than 2 hours ago 

 

This is a commenting text. Analysis and positions are the writer's. 

 

Vladimir Putin. Photo: Mikhail Klimentyev / AP 

 

COLUMNISTS 

 

Russia loses nothing by having their gas pipelines sabotaged. 

 

However, they can win a lot. 

 

No one in a responsible position wants to say anything about who or who may be behind the blown up Russian gas pipelines Nord stream 1 and 2. 

 

Not the Swedish government. Not the Danish one. Not NATO. Not the EU. So far, they are content with the fact that the holes in the gas pipes are the result of "a deliberate act", i.e. sabotage. 

 

It can be a wise strategy. Until there is any evidence in either direction there is no reason for governments or international organizations to throw accusations around. 

 

But no matter how hard one tries, it is difficult to find anyone besides Russia who profits from the bombings. It's not possible. 

 

Russia, on the other hand, has a lot to gain. And nothing to lose except the cost of fixing the holes. Currently, no Russian export gas is transported in the pipelines. 

 

The biggest gain for Russia would be for them to spread anxiety, fear and terror around them. They would show that they have power. 

 

Putin and his followers want us to be afraid of Russia. Worried and anxious people are more compliant than others. This also applies to nations. 

 

But why should countries like Sweden, Denmark and other NATO and EU countries be afraid of someone blowing a couple of holes in a gas pipeline that is not currently in use? 

 

Answer: Because the attacks will remind them that the enemy, wherever he is, is unpredictable. Can appear anywhere. Can behave in any way. They call it psychological terror. 

 

 But the operation should also remind us that there is a long and potentially cold winter ahead of us. The Russian energy giant Gazprom warned the day before yesterday that gas exports may be reduced even more than has already been done. This is to push up the prices and remind us that heat seems to be in short supply during the winter. 

 

Another win for Russia could be if the blown lines lead to a split between the EU countries. There are already fights over the non-Russian gas currently available on the market. 

 

But if it's a really cold winter, the gas may not be enough to stop loud civil protests. And divide the member states. 

 

The so far very unanimous line from the EU has been to isolate Russia and designated Russians economically from the member states. 

 

Russia, unlike most others, could also benefit from an escalated conflict over the gas pipelines. Regardless of how damaged the gas lines are, they must be repaired. 

 

That would allow the owner, essentially the Russian state, to send ships to the area with the damaged lines. Despite the fact that two of the four explosion holes are in the Swedish economic zone. 

 

From the ships, which may be from the Russian Navy, robots are then sent down to make repairs. 

 

They could even block shipping lanes citing that they have large economic interests to defend on the seabed. It would cause major disruptions in maritime traffic. 

 

Whether that would be compatible with international law is unclear. But as you know, the biggest go first. 

 

For the sake of clarity, I would like to emphasize that no one has claimed responsibility for the bombings. No one in a position of responsibility is pointing in any direction. 

 

But it is hard to see that anyone other than Russia has anything to gain from the sabotage. 

 

A lonely madman? You rarely know where you have them. But the chance that he has the time, money and knowledge to carry out explosions at a depth of 70 to 80 meters far out at sea is minimal.