Expert on the robot: "Biden takes his mind off Russia"

Russia's invasion of Ukraine 

 

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Annica Ögren , 

 

Give Zangana 

 

Published: Less than 2 hours ago 

 

Updated: Less than 20 min ago 

 

NEWS 

 

After a robot struck Polish territory, killing two people, there have been conflicting accounts of who fired the robot. 

 

According to US President Joe Biden, the explosion was caused by a Ukrainian anti-aircraft missile, a NATO source told Reuters. 

 

- It is remarkable that Joe Biden goes out at this stage and based on preliminary data and calms down and takes his mind off Russia, says Magnus Christiansson, a war scientist at the Norwegian Defense University and an expert on NATO. 

 

It was on Tuesday afternoon that a robot struck Polish territory in the town of Przewodów, six kilometers from the border with Ukraine, killing two people. 

 

US President Joe Biden has informed NATO and the G7 that the explosion in Poland was caused by a Ukrainian anti-aircraft missile, a NATO source told Reuters. 

 

So far, the reactions of NATO as well as Poland and the United States have been calm and composed. This is what Johan Norberg, Russia expert and research leader at the Total Defense Research Institute (FOI), thinks in an interview in SR's Studio Ett, on Wednesday morning. 

 

- I suspect that you don't want this to have a fast and uncontrolled dynamic. I think people get together and give themselves time to coordinate their response to this, he says. 

 

Norberg believes that a lot of accusations from different sides can make it difficult to keep a picture of what has happened. 

 

Overnight, US President Joe Biden said it was unlikely to have been fired from Russia, citing intelligence. 

 

- There is preliminary information that disputes that. I don't want to say that until we've fully investigated it," Biden said, continuing: - Based on the trajectory of the projectile, it is unlikely that it was fired from Russia. But we'll see. 

 

Magnus Christiansson is a war scientist at the Swedish Defense Academy and an expert on NATO. 

 

- It is remarkable that Joe Biden goes out at this stage and based on preliminary data and calms down and takes his mind off Russia. 

         

          Magnus Christianson. Photo: Anders G Warne 

Photo: Twitter/Screenshot 

Ukrainian anti-aircraft robot behind the explosion 

 

The information about the incident was initially conflicting. The Polish government said the robot is Russian-made. 

 

- What indicates that is that the only ones who could politically send a missile against Poland have Russian-made equipment. It is probably based on debris found at the impact site in an initial technical investigation, says Magnus Christiansson. 

 

On the other hand, both Ukraine and Russia are using Soviet weapons in the war, which means that even if the robot is Ukrainian, it could be of the Soviet variety. 

 

- There will also be a question of how technically it could be done. There are many different variants and military techniques and it is a question of whether it is possible in terms of distance from Russia. 

 

On Wednesday morning, however, US President Joe Biden should have informed both NATO and the G7 countries that the explosion was caused by a Ukrainian anti-aircraft missile, according to a NATO source to Reuters. There are also reports that Ukraine tried to shoot down a Russian robot, writes one of the AP news agency's reporters on Twitter, who refers to American sources. 

 

- It is a scenario in the spirit of probability because Ukraine has been exposed to a number of missile attacks throughout the night. Ukrainian air defense in Lviv has been active during the night, so it is not entirely unlikely, says Magnus Christiansson. 

 

         

Photo: Graphics: Mattias Kling

The puzzle pieces required for answers 

 

To get to the bottom of what actually happened, there are mainly two pieces of the puzzle that need to fall into place. 

 

Since the war began, NATO has had an air defense presence in the area around Ukraine and not least in Poland, which monitored the events in Ukraine from the air. According to information from a NATO source, such a NATO aircraft should have captured radar data from the missile that struck Poland, reports CNN. 

 

But even if NATO has had signals intelligence planes that regularly circle around and look into Ukraine and Belarus, this does not necessarily mean that an aircraft intercepted the robot, says Magnus Christiansson. 

- A lot can happen at the same time. It is also possible to have only fragments of the missile's trajectory. It will be an important piece of the puzzle for the evidence. 

 

An indication that it is also that NATO is trying to de-dramatize it at this stage and go out with as much as possible of the information it actually has, to kill rumours, says Magnus Christiansson. One such rumor is that it could be a cruise missile of the KH 101 type, which is fired from aircraft. 

 

- Russia also uses nine air bases in Belarus, which means that such a missile does not need to have been launched from within Russia. With that it's hard to know, says Magnus Christiansson. 

 

The second piece of the puzzle required is a technical evidence investigation at the impact site. 

 

But even more important than knowing which exact type of robot was used, according to Magnus Christiansson, it will now be to show alliance solidarity and support the Poles' ability to establish their territorial sovereignty. 

 

- Poland has played an important role in supporting Ukraine. If it is a target linked to it, it is important to show solidarity and stick together because the Russian motive could be to normalize the fighting and for eastern Poland to become part of the conflict zone which then Russia can continue to push.