söndag 6 november 2022

Our groveling for Erdogan is dangerous and completely unnecessary

 
Wolfgang Hansson 
 
Sweden is cringing for Turkey quite unnecessarily 
 
Published: Less than 3 hours ago 
 
This is a commenting text. Analysis and positions are the writer's. 
 
 COLUMNISTS 
 
That it can be perceived as the Swedish government cowering before Erdogan is both unfortunate and dangerous for Sweden. 
 
Especially as Sweden in the end probably humiliates itself completely unnecessarily. 
 
Previously, it was Magdalena Andersson who bent over backwards to keep Turkey's president in a good mood. The new bourgeois government continues along the same lines in the hope that Turkey will say yes to Sweden's and Finland's NATO applications as soon as possible. All others, except Hungary, have already done so. 
 
I'm not going to rank which of the government representatives has kicked the most in the dust for Erdogan, but after Foreign Minister Tobias Billström's appearance in SR's Saturday interview, one can safely state that some kind of record must have been broken in politeness and attitude towards Turkey by government representatives in the last six months, regardless of party color. 
 
This despite assurances from both social democrats and moderates that Sweden can continue to pursue a completely independent foreign policy. 
 
In fact, there are no major changes that Tobias Billström is expressing, but both the timing, a few days before Prime Minister Kristersson's visit to Turkey, and his way of expressing himself make it difficult to defend against the feeling that Sweden is standing with hat in hand at Erdogan's door . 
 
Billström had no problem calling Turkey a full-fledged democracy. I hardly think he would have expressed himself like that unless NATO membership was at stake. A more accurate description is that Turkey is in a borderland between democracy and an authoritarian state where democracy has been constantly on the decline for the last 8-10 years. 
 
It is only in a fictional world that all problems are easy to solve. Governments are often faced with a choice between plague and cholera. That Sweden does not needlessly want to disagree with Erdogan is natural at the moment. But there must be a limit to how far one is prepared to go. 
 
Tobias Billström.
Tobias Billström. Photo: Fredrik Sandberg/TT 
 
Questionable behavior 
 
It must not appear that Sweden's foreign policy is for sale or that we give in to pressure from a regime with highly questionable democratic values. Then we are on a dangerous path where our international reputation is damaged. 
 
The Syrian Kurdish YPG and the political branch PYD were used by the West as ground troops in the war to crush the Islamic State caliphate in Syria/Iraq. Sweden was part of a de facto coalition where the YPG was also a member. To now say that Sweden must keep a safe distance from the YPG and PYD therefore appears a little strange and can be perceived as a betrayal. 
 
But the most important issue still concerns the so-called terrorists that Turkey is requesting extradited from Sweden. Here runs a red line that Sweden should not cross. It is clear that Sweden and Turkey have very different definitions of terrorism and we should not adopt the Turkish one. 
 
What appears to be the saddest thing about the Swedish bashing is that it takes place without any guarantees that Turkey will accommodate Sweden, and also probably completely unnecessarily. 
 
To begin with, it is not even certain that Turkey's blackmail attempts are in practice directed at Sweden. Erdogan sees an opportunity to get extra money for letting the two Nordic countries into NATO, but he is probably much more interested in being able to buy advanced fighter jets from the United States than in Sweden handing over some "terrorists". 
 
Second, Erdogan is using Sweden's and Finland's applications as leverage in the Turkish election campaign. Erdogan is doing badly in the opinion polls and needs to strengthen his shares at home. By refusing to say yes to Sweden and Finland, he can appear tough.
Photo: Paul White/AP 
Put on its end 
 
No matter how much Sweden tries to accommodate Turkey, there are no guarantees that Erdogan will approve our NATO application before next summer. On the contrary, it may be his goal to keep the issue alive until election day in June. 
 
Thirdly, it is difficult to see how Erdogan will be able to stop Sweden's and Finland's NATO membership in the long run, regardless of whether we make any concessions or not. NATO expansion is extremely central to the military alliance and the most obvious loss for Vladimir Putin since Russia's invasion of Ukraine. 
 
If the matter comes to a head, the US will twist Erdogan's arm in a way that he will find difficult to resist. 
 
Of course, there are no guarantees that Erdogan will ultimately fail, but he would have to pay a very high price to stop Sweden and Finland. 
 
Therefore, there is reason for the Swedish government to keep a cool head and stop fawning over Turkey.

Inga kommentarer:

Skicka en kommentar