A referendum on Joe Biden's future

 

Wolfgang Hansson

The midterm elections a referendum on Biden 

 

Published: Less than 20 min ago 

 

This is a commenting text. Analysis and positions are the writer's. 

 

COLUMNISTS 

 

On the ballot are senators, congressmen and governors.

 

But the mid-term elections in the United States are in practice also a referendum on the incumbent president. 

 

He almost always loses which is bad news for Joe Biden and the Democrats. 

 

In recent months, the opinion polls have swung back and forth like a weathervane. But with ten days to go until the Nov. 8 election, it looks like the Democrats are almost certain to lose their majority in the House of Representatives. 

 

If things get really bad, you will also lose your super-thin majority in the Senate, where only Vice President Kamala Harris's deciding vote gives the party the upper hand. 

 

For Biden, it would be a minor disaster. In such a situation, he finds it very difficult to get his policy through. Especially since the willingness of the Republicans to cooperate with Biden is next to zero. 

 

If Republicans control the entire Congress, all that remains is for Biden to rule by decree and veto Republican bills he disapproves of. 

 

If Biden's power decreases, his chances of being re-elected in 2024 also decrease if he chooses to run.

 

US President Joe Biden. Photo: Susan Walsh/AP 

 

One way for the Democrats to try to turn the tide of the election is to call heavy names like former President Barack Obama into the election campaign. Not so much to win over undecided voters, but mainly to get the supporters of their own party to actually go to the polling station. 

 

The only exception 

 

Voter turnout in the US is very low in presidential elections every four years, but it is even lower in mid-term elections. Therefore, the party that succeeds in getting its voters most involved usually wins. 

 

Here, the Republicans have an edge because there is great anger among conservatives and many independent voters against Biden's way of running the country. 

 

The high inflation, the ever higher prices of food and fuel are things that worry and annoy people. The midterm elections are a way to show dissatisfaction with the incumbent president's job. 

 

If you look historically, it is almost always the case that the incumbent president's party loses seats in the House of Representatives. 

 

The only exception in modern times is when the Republicans managed to retain power in Congress after George W Bush's first two years in power. This is thanks to the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001, which caused Bush's popularity figures to skyrocket. 

Photo: Susan Walsh/AP 

But in the past, politicians from both major parties felt a greater responsibility to cooperate even when the tenant of the White House was not of their party. Today, much of politics is about destroying the opposing side rather than serving the American people. 

 

The economy decides 

 

Democrats had hoped that the Supreme Court's decision this summer to abolish national abortion rights would get more Democrats to vote. But in recent weeks, the dire economic situation seems to have eclipsed anger over the abortion restrictions. At least if the opinion polls are to be believed. 

 

Biden hopes that some good news about the economy will cause the momentum to shift once again. One such came yesterday when it appeared that the American economy grew by 2.6 percent during the third quarter of the year. An unexpectedly large increase and something that reduces the risk that the US is heading into a recession. 

 

The president is also trying to point out that the assessment among economic experts is that inflation will moderate sharply in the next year. 

 

Unfortunately for Biden, another piece of news arrived that was not as positive. The fixed mortgage rate in the US is now over seven percent. More than doubling compared to a year ago. Another increased cost that is added on top of other price increases. 

 

Record low popularity 

 

The Democrats are now betting everything on trying to keep their majority at least in the Senate where the opinion polls give them a chance. If it is more or less a natural law that the president's party always loses the House of Representatives in the mid-term elections, the connection is not as clear when it comes to the Senate. In six of the last 19 midterm elections, the president's party has even won seats in the Senate or at least kept them. 

 

Just like in the presidential election, it is the race in a few close states that decides. The vast majority of elections are already effectively decided because so many states are either heavily Republican or Democratic. 

 

Finally, a factor that speaks against Biden and the Democrats. Biden's approval ratings are the second worst of any president so far in office. Only Trump's was worse. 

 

On the other hand, Republicans won two seats in the Senate just that time, in the 2018 midterm elec