The Paris Agreement Data: The world is moving towards three degrees of warming

SVT experiences: Worse news in the next IPCC report 

 

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Fanny Westling Published: Less than 1 hour ago 

 

Updated: Less than 40 min ago 

 

NEWS 

 

The globe's temperature is expected to rise up to three degrees according to an as yet unpublished IPCC forecast, writes

SVT. 

 

Twice as much as the Paris Agreement targets and with unknown consequences for humanity. 

 

- I think we decide for ourselves, do we want cheaper petrol prices or reduce emissions, says Michael Tjernström, professor of meteorology at Stockholm University. 

 

The goal and promise was 1.5 degrees of warming. That doesn't seem to be the case. 

 

Yesterday, the UN climate secretariat released a report that the earth's temperature increase is on its way to 2.5 degrees before the end of the century - i.e. a full degree more than the Paris Agreement's goal of 1.5 degrees. 

 

But SVT learns that the next report from the IPCC will come with even worse news. The forecast will show that we are on the way to 2.9-3.2 degrees of warming, if the countries continue to have such weak climate plans as now. 

 

- People usually talk about it happening by the year 2100, but the researchers talk about it being possible earlier than at the end of the century, says SVT's climate correspondent Erika Bjerström. 

 

The report will also emphasize the importance of so-called "negative" emissions, including restoring and taking care of wetlands and forests that store carbon dioxide. 

 

- It is becoming increasingly dangerous, we are driving against uncertainty, says Professor Deliang Cheng at the University of Gothenburg to SVT. 

 

 

Michael Tjernström is a climate researcher and professor of meteorology. Photo: Aftonbladet 

 

Straight into the uncertainty 

 

Many researchers that SVT has spoken to are self-critical. The Paris Agreement's goal of 1.5 degrees of temperature increase has not been seen as a "goal" but rather as an absolute limit. A limit that has already been crossed to some extent, as the temperature increase over land is already 1.6 degrees, according to SVT. 

 

Therefore, there is no research on what happens at three degrees of warming. 

 

- Starting to look at it is a huge task, trying to understand all the effects, says Erika Bjerström. 

 

Michael Tjernström, professor of meteorology at Stockholm University, says that there is some research into what happens with three degrees of warming. 

 

Everything that is already happening, i.e. forest fires, droughts, water shortages and severe floods, will continue – but become much worse. 

 

- It will not get better, but rather worse. It will affect poor countries mainly, but also in richer countries such as Europe. 

 

"As you make your bed so you must lie" 

 

The Greenland ice sheet will continue to melt and the Arctic sea ice will surely disappear every summer, sometime in the middle of this century. The changes will contribute to changes in the ecosystems, and the coral reefs will find it difficult to survive. 

 

- The further away from the natural climate we get, the more uncertain everything will be, because we are out and moving towards things we have not experienced. The coral reefs, the Greenland ice sheet and the sea ice in the Arctic can be saved - but not if we exceed three degrees. 

 

- We still have politicians who say that we will manage the Paris Agreement, although in my opinion it is clearly impossible. 

 

He claims that as long as society only worries about the climate rather than acting, the development will not be stopped. 

 

- As long as we worry about the economy next month rather than the future of the earth, we have to take the consequences. I don't think it's particularly dramatic, as you make your bed, you get to lie.