The expert's alarm: Could tip over – within 20 years

 

Rockström: Seven meter sea level rise may soon be "locked in" 

 

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Jonathan Jeppsson 

 

Published: Less than 1 hour ago 

 

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If emissions do not decrease, the Greenland ice sheet could be tipped over the border in just 15–20 years, says Johan Rockström. 

 

This means that we inevitably, in the long term, commit ourselves to seven meters of sea level rise. 

 

- The current picture is very bleak. We see that all curves continue in the wrong direction, says Johan Rockström. 

 

This week, a UN report came out that shows that the world is on the way to 2.7 degrees of warming by the end of the century. At the same time, SVT's climate reporter Erika Bjerström was able to report that the IPCC's forecast in its upcoming report in March 2023 points to the world being on the way to 2.8-3.2 degrees of warming by 2100.

 

Johan Rockström, professor of global environmental science, whose team in the autumn itself came up with a worrying report on how we are approaching a number of "tipping points", takes the situation very seriously

 

- The current picture is very bleak. The world is not complying with what is required to have a chance of stopping warming at 1.5 degrees let alone well below two degrees. We have not even bent the global curve of emissions and moreover the world is not delivering on the promises the world agreed on in Glasgow at COP26.. We see that all the curves continue to go in the wrong direction. 

 

- We may reach 1.5 degrees already in 15–20 years. And we know that 1.5 degrees is a real threshold - if we go over it, we risk tipping the entire Greenland ice sheet with really big, serious consequences as a result. 

 

"A huge concern" 

 

Earlier last fall, a study came out that states that Greenland's melting ice sheet will raise the sea level by at least 27 centimeters in the next hundred years. The change is inevitable regardless of further global warming, according to a new study. And it is precisely the consequences that the melting Greenland Ice Sheet gives rise to that Johan Rockström sees as the most worrying right now. 

 

- It is a huge concern. In addition to raising the sea level, we have more and more scientific evidence that this has effects on other systems.. When the Greenland ice sheet melts, cold fresh water is released into the North Atlantic around the Gulf Stream. Today we have evidence that it slows down the heat circulation in the North Atlantic. When it slows down, the monsoon systems shift, so we get less rainfall in the Amazon rainforest, accelerating the collapse there. More warm, salty surface water is also trapped in the Southern Hemisphere, accelerating melting in Antarctica. 

 

- Greenland will be the starting point of a whole series of dominoes, what we call "casscading tipping points". We must therefore not destabilize the Greenland ice sheet, but we are very quickly on our way to doing so, unfortunately. 

 

 

Johan Rockström is professor of global environmental science. Photo: Fredrik Sandberg/TT 

 

Seven meter sea level rise He believes that we can reach a point where already in 15-20 years we "lock" the ice in the event of an inevitable melting, with enormous consequences as a result, if emissions continue to be at a high level and warming increases. 

 

- It is about seven meters of sea level rise. It will take 500 years, but it is unstoppable. This could mean that already in the year 2100 we go from a 60-100 centimeter sea level rise to a 150 centimeter sea level rise when it is combined with the contributions of other melting ice sheets. It has catastrophic consequences for millions of people in low-lying regions of the world, says Johan Rockström. 

 

How humanity will deal with the challenge is shrouded in obscurity, but it is clear that in that case we will eventually be forced to leave the low-lying areas near the sea that are habitable today. But the change is now happening quickly, says Johan Rockström - perhaps all too quickly. 

 

- There are more and more analyzes that show that we are starting to reach "limits to adaptation". There have always been changes on our planet, but they have happened at a rate that animals and plants have been able to adapt to. But now things are going so fast that animals and plants have difficulty adapting. 

 

Six degrees higher in Sweden 

 

A world three degrees warmer at the end of the century, that too brings with it extreme challenges. The last time the global average temperature was higher than that was over three million years ago. This means, according to Johan Rockström, that we cannot know how life will turn out because we have no reference for human life that far back in time. But it is likely that large parts of the Earth will become basically uninhabitable – humanity will have to concentrate around the lower and higher latitudes where the temperatures and weather are bearable. At the same time, we must realize that three degrees higher temperature globally, also means double that in Sweden. 

 

- We will have enormous difficulty with the food supply. V will have very sudden changes in the weather, storms, droughts and floods that make what we think is extreme today become the quiet everyday life in the future. It will clearly be a tougher world to live in. 2.8 degrees globally also probably means six degrees in Sweden and ten degrees in the Arctic.

 

"I feel compelled" 

 

Johan Rockström is also critical of the new government's proposal for reductions in the petrol and diesel tax. 

 

- It is much better to let the market take its course. It will sting, but it creates incentives to invest in renewable energy sources and reduce fuel consumption, and so you get to compensate citizens in other ways - through income tax cuts and direct payments. 

 

The Greenland ice sheet can be tipped over the border in just 15–20 years, Rockström believes. 

Photo: Caspar Haarløv / AP 

  

I get the impression that you have become increasingly involved in the domestic political debate in recent times. 

 

- Yes, that's right and I don't really feel completely comfortable with it. I only do it because I feel compelled to. I look at Sweden from a different horizon today and receive confirmation almost every day of how important Sweden is as a leading country, not only in terms of sustainability but also in terms of solidarity, democracy, stability and openness. Then it feels worrying that we are taking off the leadership shirt when it comes to the climate area, just when the world needs that leadership more than ever. To back down in that situation makes me deeply, deeply concerned, and that is why I have tried to flag that there are scientific and economic reasons, as well as support from the business world, to stick to an ambitious, scientifically based climate policy. 

 

Minister of Industry Ebba Busch has said herself that we will have increased emissions "in the short term". How compatible is it with the research you are conducting, where we seem to be approaching a number of "tipping points"? 

 

 - Completely incompatible. Especially incompatible in a country like Sweden. The whole world is having a hard time right now. Sweden is nevertheless one of the countries in the world that is best placed to handle this situation. We must take our responsibility. If countries like Sweden back down and say that we can't handle this, then it becomes obvious that countries like Egypt, Indonesia, South Africa, India or Brazil say: "Look at Sweden, if even they don't think they can afford to remain on the right course in the transition, how can you demand that we increase our level of ambition? 

 

If we reach three degrees by 2100, how do you think the people of that time will look at us? 

 

- I think they will be very disappointed. They will have the full report. They will have the evidence that we had the knowledge, that we had the solutions even though we did not implement them and they will sit with the results of all the consequences. It went to hell, even though we had the solutions and we had the knowledge that it could go to hell. Much will be written about this selfish period of human existence on earth, where we only cared about our short-term consumption and did not take responsibility for the planet and future generations.