A slap in the face for the extreme right - now the circus awaits

French politics
Slap for Le Pen's party - now political circus awaits

Johanna Fränden

This is a commenting text. Analysis and positions are the writer's.

Updated 23.12 | Published 23.07

 

Marine Le Pen's National Rally party suffered a blow in the French election. Photo: Louise Delmotte/AP

When the provisional election results were presented at 8 p.m. in France, many could not believe their eyes. The far-right winning hole had been replaced by a left-wing triumph.

But the new French parliamentary situation does not offer any majorities and now weeks, perhaps months, of political uncertainty in the country follow.

This is the biggest political surprise in modern French history. It's not me who says it, it's political analyst and journalist Alain Duhamel, 84 years old, a few seconds after the provisional election results were announced at 8pm on Sunday evening.

It is difficult to describe the result of the quickly announced parliamentary election in any other way, even if the National Assembly's candidates lamented "a political chaos" during the evening. They are not wrong. With an election result in which neither the left-wing bloc, Emmanuel Macrons centrist party nor the far-right get their own majority, weeks of political uncertainty and cow-trafficking await in a France that is preparing for the opening of the Summer Olympics in less than three weeks.

             

            Many gathered at Republique plaza in Paris after the election results. Photo: Louise Delmotteap

After the first round a week ago, Marine Le Pen's party appeared to have the parliamentary majority within reach. The French extreme right was on the threshold of forming a government in France. Its prime ministerial candidate Jordan Bardella has put on a statesmanlike air in recent weeks. The 28-year-old political prodigy is used to being in opposition, but in the last week he has ducked debates, presumably calculating that it would not strengthen his party.

According to surveys, National Assembly voters have been the most certain of their vote, the least likely to switch sides in a week. The high voter turnout in the first round also spoke for the fact that the extreme right is now winning by people leaving the couch and going to the polling station. The result of the EU election, which is the reason why President Emmanuel Macron called new elections, showed that the French extreme right had the muscle to become France's biggest political force.

Was it a protest vote? That's what Macron seems to have reasoned when he called new elections and appealed to the French to choose between his party or chaos. A week ago he suffered his biggest political loss to date. His party Together was annihilated by the French voters, it was certainly not just about the EU.

A week later, we are faced with a completely different reality.

Le Pen's National Assembly is increasing its seats in the National Assembly but on Sunday night there are many indications that they will land somewhere in half the number of seats that almost all polling institutes assigned them just a few days ago.
It is, to some extent, about tactical votes.

Emmanuel Macron's party makes an unexpectedly strong election. Photo: Mohammed Badra/AP

The french electoral system, The French electoral system, with two rounds where the winner takes all in each constituency, allows voters to reorganize and vote out the political force they like least. National gathering has traditionally been penalized by this. It is a party that was formed by former Nazi collaborators in a country where the trauma of the Second World War is still in the collective consciousness.
The tactical vote against the National Assembly in the second round, known as the Republican Front, has decided many political elections in France over the past twenty years. The question being asked left and center this time was whether it still holds up.
The provisional election results at 8pm answered with a resounding yes.

In a country where both the traditional left and right have been eaten up by Macron's centrist party for the past seven years, the left-wing alliance New People's Front emerged as the undisputed winner.
Even Emmanuel Macron's party, calculated from both the right and the left before the second round, makes an unexpectedly strong choice, even if it will lose seats in the National Assembly.

There is currently only one clear loser and that is the extreme right. After ten years of steady gains for Marine Le Pen's party, this is a slap in the face that will probably take time to recover from.

French left-wing leader Jean-Luc Melenchon. Photo: Thomas Padilla/AP

On sunday evening Prime Minister Gabriel Attal submitted his resignation. In recent weeks, he has increasingly distanced himself from party leader Macron, as it has become clear that the president has become a yoke for his own political movement. Perhaps that explains part of the party's unexpectedly strong results. But second place in the election does not give enough legitimacy to rule the country.

Now the mission goes to the left-wing alliance of social democrats, socialists, environmentalists, communists and leftists, who have not presented a candidate for prime minister in advance. It will be a political circus. The People's Front disagrees among themselves about, in turn, the war in Ukraine, the war in Gaza and the discussed retirement age. They differ in their view of the EU and in national economic matters they have widely differing proposals for reforms. In addition to this, you will probably have to build alliances with Emmanuel Macron's center-right project, a mountain that looks almost impossible to climb right now.

Troubled times await in France, the summer holidays will have to wait. Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella must withdraw and lick their wounds. This was a blow they could not in their wildest imaginations have foreseen.