Terrorist threats to Europe may increase with the conflict

Israel
The expert: The war can increase the terrorist threat level

Knut Sahlin Ekberg

Updated 14.15 | Published 13.44

The conflict between Israel and Hezbollah is in full swing.

And the potential consequences for Sweden can be tangible, according to expert Anders Persson.

- If you want war, this is something that can trigger it, he says.

Last night, the Hizbollah militia in Lebanon attacked the Majdal Shams area of ​​the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. 12 children and young adults fell victim to the attack. And soon after came the retribution. The Israeli Defense Forces attacked seven Hezbollah targets in several locations "deep" in Lebanon.

Mourning relatives of those killed in the attack on the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. Photo: Leo Correa / AP

Hezbollah has denied involvement, but before the attack they said that robots had been fired at a military base in the Golan Heights, according to Anders Persson, a Middle East expert at Linnaeus University.

- Yesterday we saw the most serious incident so far during the fighting between Hezbollah and Israel, he says and continues:

- It is in line with what analysts feared was a nightmare scenario.

Anders Persson, Middle East expert. Photo: Johannes Rydström, Linnaeus University

The risk now exists of retaliation. The ball is in Israel's half, according to him.

There are a couple of incentives for Israel to go on the attack in Lebanon. But above all, it is about showing action. Many more voices want you to respond harshly, he believes. The political pressure is increasing.

- There is no doubt about that. But whether to attack with a ground offensive or extensive airstrikes remains to be seen. But there are more and more voices pointing in that direction.

In the attack on the Golan Heights, 12 children and young adults died. Photo: Leo Correa / AP

The consequences for Sweden

The risk is that a new war develops in the Middle East. It would have major consequences in the region - but also affect Sweden.

- Most Palestinians in Sweden have come here via Lebanon and this means that they still often have friends, relatives and family there, says Anders Persson.

- If there was a full-scale war and many people got hurt, there would be much more powerful demonstrations than we have seen so far, he continues.

If the conflict expands in the Middle East, several actors are drawn into it. One effect of this will be that the relationship with the West is put on the edge - and that the already high level of terror threat is raised even further, says Anders Persson.

- Israel is not primarily concerned with terrorist threats in Europe. Europe. Israel is the region's strongest military power, but Hezbollah is the world's strongest sub-state actor. And it weighs heavily in their decision-making.

During the night of Sunday, Israel attacked several targets in Lebanon with drones. Photo: Idf

The warning: Leave Lebanon

Since October 19, the Swedish Ministry of Foreign Affairs has a strict travel advisory to Lebanon. After yesterday's attack on the Golan Heights, Foreign Minister Tobias Billström issued a reminder:

"I have said it several times and I say it again: it is necessary for Swedish citizens to leave Lebanon or to refrain from going to the country in question. Please heed this clear call from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs," he wrote on X.