Biden cannot escape – his career is threatened by two disasters

Joe Biden
Two disasters Biden will not escape

Niclas Vent

Reporter

This is a commenting text. Analysis and positions are the writer's.

Updated 12.09 | Published 09.49

This week would be a triumph for Joe Biden.

Instead, it could be the end of his political life.

Last night he passed the first obstacle of the week without tearing - but his problems are not over.

Two disasters have shaken all his plans for the ongoing NATO summit - and created two problems he cannot escape.

Until two weeks ago, everything seemed to be going Biden's way.

A star-studded NATO summit on home soil in July would be a perfect springboard into the real election campaign.

The impression was then that the USA managed to put a lid on all the meeting's potentially troublesome issues:

• The countries of Eastern Europe that wanted to go further than the United States towards full NATO membership for Ukraine had fallen into line.
• The issue of a higher target for defense spending, which should probably be discussed already, did not enter the agenda, despite open pressure from Poland.

           

         

          Joe Biden gave an opening speech.

          1 / 2Photo: Nora Savosnick

Biden did not want discord and trouble.

The meeting would only be about everything that goes well:

Biden ville inte ha oenighet och problem.

Mötet skulle bara handla om allt som går bra:

•  That more allies than ever are now living up to the goal of 2 percent of GDP in defense spending.
• That longer-term support for Ukraine will be in place.
•  That the partnership between NATO and America's allies in Asia is getting tighter – a signal against China that is important to American voters.
  

Now all plans have been completely overturned by two disasters - which created two difficult questions Biden cannot escape:

1) The debate - and the question of his health

After the disastrous debate against Donald Trump, one question has occupied the entire United States:

Does Joe Biden have what it takes for four more years as president?

Instead of a chance to radiate strength and leadership, NATO week is now being described as a fateful week for Biden's entire political life.

The outside world is now watching nervously for any sign that Joe Biden will stumble, and even if he passed the first hurdle last night without tearing,the problem remains.

The debate was a disaster for Biden. Photo: Gerald Herbert/AP

2) The attack - and the question of Ukraine support is really enough

Ukraine has been described as the summit's most important issue.

Despite that, the discussion before the meeting has been low-key.

It has mostly been about which words can be used to describe Ukraine's approach to NATO - while full membership is still unthinkable.

Right now, it is likely that Ukraine's future in NATO will be described as "irreversible".

Which, of course, doesn't do much to help Ukraine today.

The US has wanted to focus on the positive steps that are still expected to be taken at the meeting.

For example, that the NATO countries contribute 40 billion dollars in military support to Ukraine next year, and will probably agree in principle that it should be at that level in the future.

Joe Biden med Natochefen Jens Stoltenberg. Foto: Nora Savosnick

Joe Biden with NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg. Photo: Nora Savosnick

In his opening speech last night, Biden also promised to send new air defense systems.

But after after the attack on the children's hospital in Kiev,the question is whether what NATO intends to present will really be enough.

Yesterday I heard a senior NATO official describe how the war is admittedly going badly for Russia. To succeed with a new offensive, Putin would have to both order a new mobilization, and get hold of new supplies of ammunition beyond what North Korea and Iran can contribute today.

At the same time, the senior NATO official assessed that Russia is recruiting 30,000 new soldiers a month and must not be underestimated.

- We must be prepared to support Ukraine beyond 2025. This is not a conflict that is likely to end in the near future, he said.

You can ask the question on its own.

If the Western aid on the table now is not enough to force Russia into retreat for many years - how many more hospital bombings does that mean Ukraine will have to endure until better opportunities to end the war arise?

It cannot be ruled out that it will be the brutal attack that causes the US's much-desired alliance within the alliance to go up in smoke.