tisdag 9 juli 2024

Biden does not give up - goes on the offensive


Joe Biden
Biden's counteroffensive to save himself remains

Wolfgang Hansson

This is a commenting text.
Analysis and positions are the writer's.

Updated 17.34 | Published 15.16

Intrycket är att Biden istället för att reflektera över sin kapacitet och lämplighet är fly förbannad på partikamraterna.
The impression is that instead of reflecting on his capacity and suitability, Biden is angry at his party colleagues. Photo: Manuel Balce Ceneta / AP

Joe Biden is not going to leave voluntarily. It is obvious.

Instead, he goes on the offensive to continue to be the party's presidential candidate.

For the Democratic Party, it remains to be decided how much it will cost to force Biden out.

The risk is that Biden is undermined so much that the result is an election victory for Donald Trump.

Quick version

In recent days, Joe Biden has gone on a furious counteroffensive against demands that he step back and let someone else take on Donald Trump in November.

On Friday, he did a longer interview on the TV channel ABC where he rejected all concerns about his health and made it clear that he will not step down unless God asks him to.

During the weekend, he held several election meetings where he tried to make a powerful and stable impression from the pulpit.

On Monday, he called in to the TV channel MSNBC's morning program and firmly stated live that no one will be able to force him out. Calling into TV shows was something Trump often did as president.

In a partly exasperated letter to Democratic congressmen, he urges them to end the debate about his suitability, close ranks and concentrate on attacking Trump. He points out that the party's voters appointed him as a candidate in the primaries.

The impression is that instead of reflecting on his capacity and suitability for the job, Biden is angry at the party members who question him.

Contrary to many others, he sees his collapse during the debate against Trump as a one-off that has been blown out of proportion.

The Democrats face an extremely delicate task. Should they, despite Biden's furious counteroffensive, continue trying to persuade him to throw in the towel?

Trumps försprång har ökat efter debatten men bara några få procentenheter.
Trump's lead has increased after the debate but only by a few percentage points. Photo: Gerald Herbert/AP

Undermine

If a growing number of Democratic congressmen publicly demand that Biden be replaced because he does not have the capacity to do the job, there is a clear risk that they will undermine their own candidate's chances in the election if it is Biden who is pitted against Trump after all.

It is Biden who must make the decision whether he should stay or not. People can try to talk him out of it, but if he refuses, it's hard to do anything about it.

Two things could make Biden drop out "voluntarily."

The opinion polls.

Biden is behind in almost every measurement. Trump's lead has increased after the debate but only by a few percentage points. Should that loss accelerate and Biden feels he has no chance of winning, it is possible he will step down.

The money.

Several donors have already said they are freezing their contributions until Biden is replaced. So far, they are few and no threat to Biden's candidacy. But if a larger portion of the most important contributors withhold their money, it may become virtually impossible for Biden to continue. A presidential election campaign in the United States is extremely expensive. Billions of dollars are needed for television advertising and to pay employees. Today, Biden has a good campaign fund, but it must be continuously replenished. Unlike Trump, he has no large fortune of his own that he can use.

New wrong sayings

The problem for both Biden and the Democrats is that all the focus is now on the president's health instead of Trump's lies. Although in the last week he has shown a higher degree of vitality and commitment, the question of his health will lie like a wet blanket over the entire election campaign.

I find it hard to believe that there won't be new misstatements, stalls or moments of confusion over the next four months.

After each one, the question will be raised again about Biden's suitability for the job.

If nothing else, the video of his collapse in the debate will be played over and over again. Rumors are already circulating that Biden has Parkinson's despite the White House denying it.

Biden is putting himself in an incredibly stressful situation.

Nor can he open to resign by conducting any kind of public reasoning about the alternatives. He is a candidate until he says otherwise. There is no middle ground.

Om Biden drar sig tillbaka är den mest sannolika efterträdaren vicepresident Kamala Harris.
If Biden retires, the most likely successor is Vice President Kamala Harris. Photo: Ronda Churchill / AP

Democrats are in a hurry. The presidential candidate is formally appointed at the party convention in mid-August. Until then, the issue of Biden must have come to some sort of conclusion.

The Democratic delegates at the convention are bound to vote for Biden as long as he does not end his candidacy himself. It is hard to imagine that enough people would break that rule and manage to unite around another candidate. But in theory it is possible.

Harris most likely

If Biden retires, the most likely successor is Vice President Kamala Harris. She is already on the ballot and would easily have access to the Biden campaign's coffers. Another candidate cannot automatically take over the money the Biden campaign has raised.

Harris has low poll numbers, but you can see how Democrats in leadership positions are starting to talk about her in a more positive way. How she could attract women and non-white voters. It is clear that the arena is raked for her possible entry.

In opinion polls, she fares somewhat better against Trump than Biden.

The problem is that no one can know for sure whether it will be easier to defeat Trump with or without Biden.

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