French politics
Disaster averted – but only for the moment
Wolfgang Hansson
This is a commenting text. Analysis and positions are the writer's.
Published 17.07
There are sighs of relief in France and around Europe.
The disaster of a far-right government in the EU's second largest country has been averted.
But only temporarily.
National Assembly and Le Pen are steadily on the rise and have their sights set on the presidential election in three years.
Quick versionSo much is about expectations.
After the first round of the French parliamentary elections, it looked like the National Assembly might even get its own majority.
When the party after the second only became the third largest party, it is portrayed as a starburst and a fiasco.
As a matter of fact, it is quite far from the truth.
In fact, Le Pen's party made its best ever election, going from 89 seats in the French National Assembly to 142. The left also advanced but no other single party is close to such an increase.
If the National Assembly had achieved the same result in the election five years ago, there would have been panic in Europe. Now everyone feels relief.
The risk is that it is a false and highly temporary feeling. A rash of wishful thinking.
France is the EU's second largest economy and, together with Germany, the engine of EU cooperation. Admittedly, it is the president who has the main responsibility for foreign and security policy, but with an elected assembly increasingly questioning support for Ukraine, NATO and the EU's growing role, his job becomes more difficult.
It also puts pressure on other governments in Europe whose position is being challenged by extreme
The election results in France and the fact that the opinion polls were so wrong can be explained in several ways.
*Some of the voters who voted in protest at the National Assembly in the first election round chose to vote more "normally" in the second. For fear of the extreme right.
*The left and the center succeeded in their intention to stop the right-wing extremists through tactical voting. Over 200 candidates withdrew in the second round of elections so that only one candidate would be pitted against the National Assembly in each constituency thereby reducing their chances of victory.
*The turnout was the highest since 1981. Many went and voted just to stop the National Assembly.
Tactical voting has stopped the success of the National Assembly even in previous elections, but with each election they get more and more votes.
If the only thing the opponents can achieve is a policy to stop National Gathering, they are doomed to fail in the long run. If the political center is unable to find solutions to what people perceive as societal problems, such as immigration and the economy, National Gathering will ultimately be at the helm.
Alternatively, the left-wing extremists.
Chaos awaits
Jean-Luc Melenchon from the party Untamed France, by virtue of being the largest in the victorious left-wing bloc, demands to be allowed to form a government.
The probability that he will get the chance is small and even less that he will succeed.
To begin with, it is Macron who decides who will get the first chance to form a government. It will likely take quite a while.
The election result means that none of the three major power blocs gets a majority of their own. The cooperation of the left-wing alliance, which was hastily formed before the election, was purely electoral technical. The four parties are very far apart in terms of policy, and it seems highly unlikely that they would succeed in bridging their internal divides while at the same time attracting Macron's party in a government collaboration.
Instead, chaos and paralysis await in French politics.
It was not what Macron had expected when he announced new elections after the National Assembly's great success in the EU elections.
Jean-Luc Melenchon from the party Untamed France, by virtue of being the largest in the victorious left-wing bloc, demands to be allowed to form a government.
The probability that he will get the chance is small and even less that he will succeed.
To begin with, it is Macron who decides who will get the first chance to form a government. It will likely take quite a while.
The election result means that none of the three major power blocs gets a majority of their own. The cooperation of the left-wing alliance, which was hastily formed before the election, was purely electoral technical. The four parties are very far apart in terms of policy, and it seems highly unlikely that they would succeed in bridging their internal divides while at the same time attracting Macron's party in a government collaboration.
Instead, chaos and paralysis await in French politics.
It was not what Macron had expected when he announced new elections after the National Assembly's great success in the EU elections.
He had two possible scenarios.
*That the French people, fearing the extreme right, would follow Macron's pointers and vote for the center.
* That the National Assembly would get its own majority and chance to rule France and then show how incompetent they are in practice. Which would mean that the French will not vote for Le Pen in the 2027 presidential election.
None of these panned out.
Instead, Macron's new election created chaos.
The president is trying. counter that by rejecting his prime minister's resignation and instead allowing Gabriel Attal to lead a transitional government likely to last several months.
No one will be satisfied and discontent in the electorate will grow.
So in 2027 there is a big risk or chance, however you look at it, that Le Pen is elected president. Macron is not allowed to stand and there is currently no given center candidate.
Instead, Macron's new election created chaos.
The president is trying. counter that by rejecting his prime minister's resignation and instead allowing Gabriel Attal to lead a transitional government likely to last several months.
No one will be satisfied and discontent in the electorate will grow.
So in 2027 there is a big risk or chance, however you look at it, that Le Pen is elected president. Macron is not allowed to stand and there is currently no given center candidate.
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