Donald Trump The US is moving in the direction of civil war
Wolfgang Hansson
This is a commenting text. Analysis and positions are the writer's.
Published 16.06
Donald Trump was millimeters from being killed.
But he managed.
It sounds cynical to say so, but the assassination will probably benefit Trump in several ways.
At the same time as it shows the high risk of political violence in the United States.
Quick versionThe country is in an extremely dangerous situation. Two totally irreconcilable political sides are facing each other.
A large part of the Democrats hate Trump and see him as a threat to democracy.
A large part of Republicans hate Biden and see Trump as the only thing that can save America's future as a white, conservative nation.
In the extremely tense situation that prevails, the assassination attempt on Trump does not come as a total surprise. The United States is a country with largely unlimited access to firearms and a history of political assassinations.
I am thinking of the assassination attempt on then President Ronald Reagan, the assassination of the black civil rights activist Martin Luther King, the assassination of presidential candidate Robert Kennedy and last but not least the assassination of President John F Kennedy in Dallas in 1963.
Image from the assassination of John F. Kennedy. Photo: AP
Murders that all changed America in one way or another.
The assassination attempt on Donald Trump probably will too.
He narrowly survived and will be regarded as a hero by his supporters. His fist pumping in the air immediately after being hit in the ear shows that he has no plans of giving up. On the contrary.
Strengthens the victim role
From a political point of view, the assassination attempt was carried out with perfect timing for Donald Trump, just a few days before the start of the Republican Party Convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
Even before that, the focus for a number of days had been entirely on the Republican Party. Now it's going to do it even more and be squarely aimed at Donald Trump.
He will get maixmal distribution for his political message. I know it sounds cynical to point that out, but if you are to analyze the consequences of the attack, it cannot be avoided.
Donald Trump's victory fist, seconds after the attack.
1 / 2Photo: Gene J. Puskar / AP
The assassination underpins the image of themselves as victims that Trump has built up for a long time. A victim of the "deep state" and of the justice system that wants him. It reinforces the image of the political witch hunt that Trump claims he is subject to.
Trump will blame the attack on Democrats' hostile verbal attacks against him. Several of his close allies within the party have already begun to do so.
Trump will ride a wave of sympathy.
At least in the near future, it will be difficult for the Democrats to attack Trump in the same way as before. It risks appearing heartless in the eyes of voters to portray Trump as a xenophobic liar and a threat to democracy. What did the Secret Service do?
I'm pretty sure that conspiracy theories about the attack will also grow quite quickly. Social media is already boiling.
How did the shooter get on the roof with a rifle where Trump was giving a speech? Why didn't Secret Servie spot him sooner? Was it even the case that the Secret Service secretly participated in the assassination?
These are questions that will be asked and many will, regardless of what the true answers are, conclude that the establishment was trying to get rid of Trump.
Something that further risks raising the level of political violence. Maybe even inspire mentally unstable people to copy the attack on someone other than Trump.
Many observers in the US have long warned of the risk that the harsh political rhetoric will end in a civil war. It sounds unlikely, but that is the direction the country is moving.
Here, the bullet that hit Donald Trump's ear may have been captured on film. New York Times photographer Doug Mills was standing below the podium when the gunshots echoed over the campaign rally and he took the picture. Former FBI agent Michael Harris' analysis of the image is that it could be the bullet, writes the New York Times
1 / 2Photo: Doug Mills / New Times
Even the Democrats can profit from the attack. For the moment, the focus on Joe Biden's health and mental capacity disappears. Just at a stage when the party has to decide how hard to push Biden to withdraw
Strengthens the victim role
From a political point of view, the assassination attempt was carried out with perfect timing for Donald Trump, just a few days before the start of the Republican Party Convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
Even before that, the focus for a number of days had been entirely on the Republican Party. Now it's going to do it even more and be squarely aimed at Donald Trump.
He will get maixmal distribution for his political message. I know it sounds cynical to point that out, but if you are to analyze the consequences of the attack, it cannot be avoided.
The assassination underpins the image of themselves as victims that Trump has built up for a long time. A victim of the "deep state" and of the justice system that wants him. It reinforces the image of the political witch hunt that Trump claims he is subject to.
Trump will blame the attack on Democrats' hostile verbal attacks against him. Several of his close allies within the party have already begun to do so.
Trump will ride a wave of sympathy.
At least in the near future, it will be difficult for the Democrats to attack Trump in the same way as before. It risks appearing heartless in the eyes of voters to portray Trump as a xenophobic liar and a threat to democracy.
What did the Secret Service do?
I'm pretty sure that conspiracy theories about the attack will also grow quite quickly. Social media is already boiling.
How did the shooter get on the roof with a rifle where Trump was giving a speech? Why didn't Secret Servie spot him sooner? Was it even the case that the Secret Service secretly participated in the assassination?
These are questions that will be asked and many will, regardless of what the true answers are, conclude that the establishment was trying to get rid of Trump.
Something that further risks raising the level of political violence. Maybe even inspire mentally unstable people to copy the attack on someone other than Trump.
Many observers in the US have long warned of the risk that the harsh political rhetoric will end in a civil war. It sounds unlikely, but that is the direction the country is moving.
Even the Democrats can profit from the attack. For the moment, the focus on Joe Biden's health and mental capacity disappears. Just at a stage when the party has to decide how hard to push Biden to withdraw and instead make way for Vice President Kamala Harris or some other candidate.
The attack changes the dynamics of the election campaign. What looked like a good move yesterday may not be at all tomorrow.
The motive
In a severe trauma for the country, the president becomes even more important. Biden has already condemned the attack and called for a unification of the nation. If Biden can act as a father of the country, it can strengthen his shares both as president and presidential candidate.
What is needed now is a serious cooling of the entire political conversation in the United States. Here the president can play an important role.
Much of the sequel will also be about the motif. All we know as of this writing is that the shooter is a 20-year-old male, registered as a Republican voter.
Since he himself was killed, it can be difficult to get a clear picture of the motive.
Is he acting on his own or on behalf of someone? If so, who?
Depending on the answers, the assassination could take the presidential election in any direction. Donald Trump. Photo: Gene J. Puskar / AP
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