The turn of the war could mean new risks for Europe

 

Wolfgang Hansson Three reasons speak for Ukrainian victory - but one speaks against it 

 

Published: Less than 2 hours ago 

 

This is a commenting text. Analysis and positions are the writer's. 

 

COLUMNISTS 

 

The first time the question was raised was when Russia was forced to abandon its attempts to capture Kyiv. 

 

There are strong reasons to put it back after the chaotic Russian flight from the Kharkiv region. 

 

Can Ukraine win the war? 

 

There are several reasons that speak for Ukrainian victory, but also those that speak against it. It is dangerous to claim any victory in advance. 

 

For speakers: 

 

1. Combat morale and motivation 

 

On this point, the Ukrainian soldiers and Ukrainian society have proven to be completely superior. They know what they are fighting for. They fight for their freedom and for the survival of their nation. 

 

The fact that they first managed to push back the Russian troops from the suburbs of Kiev and now retake large occupied areas in the north-eastern part of the country has further raised the fighting morale. 

 

On the Russian side, the situation is the opposite. Having twice been forced to retreat from large areas it occupied has made the Russian soldiers realize that the image their leaders give of Ukraine's fighting ability does not match reality. 

 

Add on top of that the heavy Russian loss of life. No one can say exactly how many Russian soldiers have died, but estimates from Western security services say somewhere between 20,000 and 50,000 dead. 

 

The Russian soldiers also do not really know what they are fighting for. Which is devastating for combat morale. 

 

 

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy meets with soldiers in the Kharkiv region. Photo: AP 

 

2. Weapons from the West 

 

At first, the help from the West was mostly symbolic. But when Ukraine showed the ability to resist the Russian invasion, the willingness to send heavy weapons increased. In the beginning, it was Turkish drones that gave Ukraine an advantage in the battles. Now it is, among other things, Swedish armor shots and heavy artillery from the USA. 

 

Putin has been surprisingly passive in his attempts to stop the arms deliveries. 

 

Overall, the West has invested huge sums in equipping the Ukrainian army and it has paid off. 

 

More help is waiting. Among other things, Ukrainian soldiers are now being trained on a number of modern weapon systems in Britain, among others. Weapons and troops that can soon be deployed at the front line. 

 

Ukraine also gets access to signals intelligence and other military intelligence from the United States. Something that proved invaluable in outsmarting the Russians.

 

 

Volodymyr Zelensky. Photo: Javad Parsa / NT 

 

3. Historical examples 

 

On paper, a victory for Ukraine should be an impossibility. Russia is a nuclear power with the world's second best equipped army. 

 

But it has happened many times before that David managed to defeat Goliath. 

 

Who would have thought that North Vietnam with its barefoot soldiers would succeed in defeating the superpower USA? But after over 50,000 died, the US had enough. 

 

In 1979, the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan to save the communist regime. After ten years of resistance from guerilla fighters that the US and Saudi Arabia helped equip and finance, the Russians retreated as losers. 

 

After toppling the Taliban and for 20 years defending Afghanistan against the return of the reign of terror, US forces left with their tails between their legs last August. The Taliban regained power. 

 

Totally unlikely but still it happened. 

 

But there is also a danger that the Ukrainian successes on the battlefield are over-interpreted. The West is looking for signs that Ukraine is doing well because, like most of us, they want Ukraine to win the war or at least prevent Putin from winning. It is important to maintain perspective. 

 

Although Ukraine has now regained some territory, Russia still holds large parts of eastern and southern Ukraine. And there are no guarantees that the fortunes of war cannot turn. 

 

 

"There is also the risk that Putin will become desperate enough to use chemical weapons or tactical nuclear weapons." Photo: Sputnik

 

...but Putin's response could turn the war around 

 

We do not know how Russia will respond to the recent Ukrainian successes, apart from the terrorist bombings of civilian targets that have already occurred. 

 

So far, Putin has used only a fraction of the fighting forces Russia can muster. Should he give orders for a general mobilization, the balance of forces could change dramatically. Russia could send another million men away. Ukraine has already mobilized and cannot increase its combat forces much more. 

 

There are many indications that the Russian army has so far used a lot of older and outdated weapons. Perhaps Russia has some surprises in store that have been saved because the country is not formally at war.

There is also the risk that Putin will become desperate enough to use chemical weapons or tactical nuclear weapons, or that he will allow a radiation disaster to occur at the Ukrainian Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant.  

A Ukrainian victory within reach also poses risks for the outside world. Putin knows that if Russia loses the war, it also almost certainly means the end of himself as an autocrat. 

This fact makes him extra dangerous in a tight spot. If he is overthrown, we do not know who or what will replace him. 

A Ukrainian victory is entirely possible but Russia will remain. But we have no idea in what form.