Attempts to stop Trump may have the opposite effect

 

Wolfgang Hansson 

 

Published: Less than 3 hours ago 

 

This is a commenting text. Analysis and positions are the writer's. 

 

COLUMNISTS 

 

The decision to compel Trump to testify before Congress is another in a series of attempts to prevent the ex-president from running in the next presidential election. 

 

But I won't be surprised if the effect is the opposite. 

 

The congressional committee investigating the president's role in the storming of the Capitol last January 6 and what preceded it has done an excellent job. For the history books, they have shown in detail how Trump handled the election loss. 

 

Nowadays, even the most ardent Trump supporter should not be able to doubt that the then president's action, in some cases lack of action, was absolutely decisive for the storming to occur and develop in the way it did. 

 

Lines of testimony from Trump's own White House associates, family members and other Republicans confirm what we've long suspected. Trump tried to stage a coup d'état and retain power despite knowing he had lost to Joe Biden. 

 

The culmination of the January 6 Committee's work was ordering Trump to appear on the witness stand. 

 

You can see it as a desperate move by Liz Cheney, another Republican and seven Democrats to stop Trump from once again coming to power. 

 

The committee knows that they are very likely living on borrowed time. If Republicans gain a majority in the House of Representatives, as almost all polls show, they will likely disband the committee. 

 

It is therefore uncertain how sharp their order to Trump to testify actually is.  

 

 

Donald Trump. Photo: Jacquelyn Martin/AP 

 

Can choose prosecution 

 

Most assume that Trump will refuse. The committee can then sue Trump just as they did with his former chief of staff Steve Bannon when he refused to appear to testify. He is now waiting to find out what the punishment will be. 

 

But the legal mills grind so slowly that the committee will probably no longer exist by the time Trump has to choose between testifying and possible punishment. 

 

Then it is more likely that the committee's work lives on through the Ministry of Justice. If they think the evidence presented in the hearings is strong enough, they can choose to indict Trump. 

 

But it appears Attorney General Merrick Garland is hesitant, even though he personally ordered the raid this summer on Trump's Mar-o-Lago Florida residence to seize classified documents Trump brought from the White House. 

 

I understand Garland. It's not that Trump doesn't deserve to be prosecuted for the way he tried to undermine American democracy by illegal means. But the question is whether an indictment would really prevent Trump from running for president in two years or whether it would even have the opposite effect. 

 

Collecting money in pile 

 

Donald Trump has not yet announced whether he intends to run in 2024 or not. He keeps hinting that he intends to do it. But it's just as much about him wanting to stay relevant and be able to continue collecting hundreds of millions of kroner from his followers. Money he has great freedom to decide how he wants to use, for example to finance future legal fees. 

 

But the threat of future lawsuits that all have the common goal of preventing Trump from being able to become president again may, on the contrary, make Trump finally decide to run. Should he win a presidential election, it gives him at least temporary immunity from prosecution and possible punishment. He can see it as a lifeline. 

 

Paradoxically, the consequence of the efforts of all Trump critics, and it is not only Democrats, to kill Trump's chances of a continued political career may be to spur him to try again to take the White House. 

 

It is not a given, but after all it is very likely that Trump would be named the candidate of the Republican Party if he runs. There are a number of names eager to take on Trump's mantle, but the former president's voter base remains so strong and devoted that potential candidates like Florida Gov. Ron de Santis and Vice President Mike Pence may still be hesitant to challenge Trump in the primaries that decide who who becomes the party's presidential candidate. 

 

Marked by age 

 

For the average Swede, it appears completely inconceivable that the American people would once again vote for Trump as president. But there are several reasons why he could win an election after all. 

 

The US economy is rocking. Dissatisfaction grows with higher prices and higher interest rates. 

 

Joe Biden will be 82 years old at the next election. Many Americans already see him today as marked by age and question his ability to lead the country. 

 

There is a shortage of alternative candidates. Still, more than 60 percent of Republicans believe Trump is set for victory in 2020. 

 

In a society where people live so much in their own bubble out of touch with reality, anything can happen.