The experts: Can respond with attacks outside Ukraine

The Russian red line may have been crossed after the explosion

 

The experts on the Crimean bridge: Putin's red line may have been crossed 

 

Of: 

 

Jacob Ruderstam 

 

Published: Less than 2 hours ago 

 

Updated: Less than 40 min ago 

 

NEWS 

 

If Ukraine attacked the Crimean bridge, Putin's red line may have been crossed. 

 

Ilmari Käihkö, associate professor of military science, believes that Russia needs to respond with countermeasures. 

 

- The nuclear weapons card is there all the time, he says. 

 

The explosion on the Crimean bridge is bad for Putin – both militarily and politically. 

 

- Politically, it is bad because the conclusion is now that Putin cannot even defend Crimea. Militarily, it is bad because Russia supplies its forces through the railway bridge to Ukraine, says Ilmari Käihkö, associate professor of military science. 

 

Russia expert Malcolm Dixelius agrees that the explosion is a major setback for Russia. 

 

- Now the entire Crimean peninsula is threatened with isolation if Russia cannot use the bridge. This means a major weakening, he says. 

 

Even Hugo von Essen, analyst for the Center for Eastern European Studies, believes that the explosion will affect the warfare in southern Ukraine. 

 

- If Russia finds it more difficult to reinforce Crimea via the bridge, you have to go via the land route. 

This means that they have to move materials and equipment from elsewhere, he says. 

 

Red line may be crossed 

 

It is still unclear what is behind the explosion. If it is Ukraine that carried out an attack, Vladimir Putin's red line may have been crossed, says Ilmari Käihkö, docent in military science at the Norwegian Defense Academy. 

 

- Russia has always said that there is a red line that runs through attacks on the Crimean peninsula. If you say that Ukraine is behind this, countermeasures are probably required, he says. 

 

How Russia might think of responding to a possible attack is difficult to say. 

 

- The question is what else Russia can do. The nuclear weapons card is there all the time. Whether this is enough to pass the red line remains to be seen, that threshold is still quite high, says Ilmari Käihkö. 

 

Hugo von Essen believes that a possible answer worries the West. 

 

- There seems to be a great fear in Washington, Berlin and Paris that this could be a red line for Russia. This could lead to different Russian responses if it is seen as an escalation on the part of Ukraine.

 

 

Hugo von Essen. Photo: TT NEWS AGENCY 

 

May respond with attacks outside Ukraine 

 

A possible Russian response to the explosion could be Russian attacks outside Ukraine, think both Hugo von Essen and Malcolm Dixelius. 

 

- It is conceivable that this raises the stakes in such a way that the Russians are prepared to go outside Ukrainian territory. Most of all, they want to stop the supply of weapons to Ukraine. It would not be entirely out of the question that they destroy an arms train in another country, says Malcolm Dixelius.

 

- Like Nord Stream, one could try to destroy infrastructure in Europe as an act of revenge, says Hugo von Essen. 

 

At the same time, the analyst believes that the Russian population will react differently if Ukraine is behind it. 

 

- Crimea has a different status in Russia compared to the recently annexed areas of Ukraine. According to many Russians, an attack on Crimea is an attack on Russia, says Hugo von Essen.

 

Ilmari Käihkö. Photo: Henrik Montgomery/TT 

 

Ilmari Käihkö points out that Russia did not respond with any countermeasures when an airbase on the Crimean peninsula was attacked in August(flygbas på Krimhalvön attackerades ). 

 

- Dmitry Medvedev said earlier that it will be Armageddon if Ukraine attacks Crimea. Then Ukraine did just that and then nothing happened. The question is what Russia is doing now.