The expert: "It doesn't look bright for Joe Biden"

Joe Biden
The expert on Biden's chances: The clock is ticking

Nelly Kronstrand

Updated 20.22 | Published 19.55

"It is 50/50 that he drops out," says USA expert Jan Hallenberg. Photo: Susan Walsh/AP

The announcement of Joe Biden's resignation must come within a couple of days.

That's what US expert Jan Hallenberg says - who believes that support for the 81-year-old is cracking behind the scenes.

- The clock is ticking, he says.

Quick version

• Joe Biden's support is crumbling and several top Democrats expect him to drop out of the presidential race within days, according to expert Jan Hallenberg.

• Both Nancy Pelosi and Barack Obama have expressed doubts about the future of Biden's candidacy, pressuring him to make a decision before the Democratic convention.
•  If Biden drops out, Kamala Harris could be the natural successor, according to Frida Stranne, despite doubts about her ability within the party.

Joe Biden's candidacy campaign is in crisis.

Several top Democrats now believe that it is only a matter of time before the 81-year-old is forced to drop out of the presidential race, according to sources for Axios.

- It doesn't look bright. If Biden drops out, the question is how the party will be able to nominate a new candidate so close to the Democrats' convention, says US expert Jan Hallenberg.

50/50

During Thursday, Nancy Pelosi is said to have turned directly to Biden and said that he is sinking the party, according to information to Reuters.

Congressman Adam Schiff has taken that a step further, publicly asking Biden to back off.

Even ex-president Barack Obama is now beginning to doubt that Biden will win the election.

According to sources, Obama is said to have said that Biden "should seriously consider his candidacy".

- I think it is 50/50 that he actually drops out. But with each passing day, the probability becomes greater, says Jan Hallenberg.

Jan Hallenberg, professor of political science and security policy expert at the Institute for Foreign Policy. Photo: Jessica Gow/TT

It will be the nail in the coffin

The US expert believes that the nail in the coffin will only come when more big names withdraw their support.

- Should the Senate leader, Nancy Pelosi and others actually publicly go out and say that he no longer has support, it's probably over. 

 

Criticism has been growing for a long time. Why doesn't he back off?

- He has wanted this his whole life. Biden holds the most powerful political position in the world. Biden has always seen himself as underestimated and that others did not consider him to be as nice as Obama, says Jan Hallenberg and continues:

- Now he certainly wants to show that he can win twice.

Jan Hallenberg says that a possible defection must take place before the Democrats' convention in August.

- As I understand the party's rules, the candidate must have been determined before the conference. So the coming days will be stressful for Biden, he says.
 

Who takes over if he drops out?

- It is hard to say. I find it difficult to see that they will have time to announce a competition for the post.

"Describes Biden as stubborn"

Frida Stranne. Photo: Johan Nilsson/TT

Frida Stranne believes, contrary to Jan Hallenberg, that the risk of Biden dropping out of the presidential race decreases with each passing day.

- It is getting harder and harder for him to step down. Now it's about prestige. I think it is unlikely that he will step aside on his own, she says.

She continues:

- I know many people in Washington who worked with Biden. They describe him as a very stubborn person. He remains convinced that he is the only one who can win over Trump.

Who do you think will take over if he were to drop out?

- Naturally, the responsibility will land on Kamala Harris.Kamala Harris. She is the first to take over the baton. I think it would fall to her, despite the fact that she has not made such a strong impression in the party and that there are many who doubt her ability.

Frida Stranne describes this year's presidential race as extraordinary.

- I would say that there has rarely been a presidential campaign when a candidate has had as much tailwind in a short time as Donald Trump, she says.

She then highlights several of Biden's previously criticized moments and the shooting at Trump.

- There have been many pluses for Trump and minuses for Biden. It is of course tragic to say that an attempted murder can cause tailwinds. But since he managed, you can say that he can use it to his advantage.