American politics
Only a 20 percent chance of Biden dropping out
Wolfgang Hansson
This is a commenting text. Analysis and positions are the writer's.
Updated 14.41 | Published 14.40
President Biden and the Democratic Party are in a nightmare situation.
Instead of attacking opponent Trump, the party is debating whether their own candidate is clear-headed enough to run.
But for it to be someone other than the sitting president who meets Trump in November, Joe Biden himself needs to change his mind.
Very little speaks for it.
Quick version
The change of presidential candidate would be huge and unlikely, but the highest stake is America's democracy that could be jeopardized if Trump returns.
I, as little as anyone else, can see into Biden's brain and analyze what is going on there. We can only proceed from what he himself and the people around him convey. As well as analyze the external pressure to which he is exposed.
In an online conversation with his campaign staff yesterday, Biden admitted that the past few days had been tough for him and that he realized staff must have been bombarded with questions from worried voters and donors. But he also said the following, according to the Washington Post.
-I'll do it. I am the candidate of the Democratic Party. No one can force me away. I'm not dropping out. I'm in the race to the end and we will win.
Just under a week has passed since Biden's disastrous appearance at the debate against Trump. It is clear that the president, at least for now, has no plans whatsoever to throw in the towel.
Biden's attitude is absolutely decisive. Only he himself can make the decision to drop out. Because he won the Democratic primaries unchallenged, he is the party's candidate.
What others think is not unimportant, but only Biden can make the decision to pass the baton on to someone else.
Delicious information
In theory, the party's delegates could riot at the Democratic convention starting on August 19 and stage a coup by voting for someone else. But that is extremely unlikely as there is not even any consensus on who the replacement would be in that case.
What we see unfolding now is a tug-of-war within the party between those so panicked by Biden's mental collapse that they want him replaced by a younger, more powerful capacity and those who believe it would be madness to replace Biden with only four months left to the election.
Both sides leak information to the media that speaks for their cause. For example, the New York Times claimed yesterday that Biden was seriously considering dropping out. Something that the president's press department strongly denied.
This is what it will probably look like in the next few weeks. The debate will continue.
It will intensify if Biden's opinion figures deteriorate sharply. The first opinion poll after the debate shows that Trump increased his lead by three percentage points. That dip is no bigger than it can be recovered. If there is a bigger loss in the coming weeks, the pressure on Biden will increase.
Silence the doubters
In an effort to calm the doubters, Biden has scheduled a television interview with ABC and a number of campaign appearances in the next few days. These will be scrutinized extra closely for new signs of deficiencies in Biden's physical and mental capacity.
If he leaves again in a clear way, the demands for him to withdraw will increase to storm force. But even if he does well, the debate won't die down.
It will last at least until the party convention, which is the occasion when Biden's candidacy is officially determined. After that, there are no formal possibilities to replace him.
So far, a number of less senior members of Congress have publicly asked Biden to withdraw. But all the heavy names have supported him or are keeping quiet.
Biden got an extra boost yesterday when 20 Democratic governors, a number of whom are considered candidates if Biden leaves, voiced their support for Biden after meeting with him at the White House.
Biden has a reputation for being very stubborn. He sees himself as a comeback kid who gets back up every time he gets knocked down. A good quality in many contexts but perhaps not here.
May lose Congress
Because it is not only presidential power that is at stake. With a weak presidential candidate, the Democrats also risk losing power in the House of Representatives and the Senate, which hold elections at the same time.
Ultimately, it is America's democracy that is at stake. Many fear what Trump might come up with if given the chance to lead the country again. It's not like a normal choice when you shrug off a loss and move on.
I think Biden is thinking a lot about how his legacy will be affected if he insists on running and then loses to Trump.
In the same balance lies the risk of changing candidates. Biden has shown he can defeat Trump. The party made a good mid-term election with him at the helm.
What says a younger candidate has a better chance of beating Trump? Everyone mentioned apart from Vice President Kamal Harris is fairly unknown in the US and she is as unpopular as Biden.
You can't rely entirely on opinion polls where people answer questions about how various hypothetical candidates would fare against Trump.
If I were to put a percentage on how big I think the chance is that Biden drops out, I would currently say somewhere around 20 percent. But as I said, no one but Biden knows what goes on in his head.
Send feedback
Inga kommentarer:
Skicka en kommentar